40% — Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 2 in 2026
Leader: At least 2 at 40% · Kalshi 40% · 4 contracts · $5 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 01:57:43 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that at least two U.S. states will formally adopt binding data-center development moratoriums by year-end 2026. The relatively modest 40% probability suggests significant skepticism about rapid legislative action, despite growing concerns about water usage, energy demand, and land consumption from artificial intelligence infrastructure. States would need to pass binding legislation—not mere studies or non-binding resolutions—within the remaining five months of 2026. The current market pricing indicates that while some states are discussing such measures, formal adoption faces hurdles including tech industry lobbying, power and water utility interests, and the complexity of drafting enforceable moratorium language. Any state passage of such legislation before January 2027 would be considered unusual given typical legislative timelines. The remainder of 2026 will likely determine whether momentum builds for data-center restrictions or whether economic development incentives prevail.

Key factors:
- At least two states must pass binding legislation (not advisory measures or studies) formally restricting new data-center development by December 31, 2026
- Current legislative activity in states discussing data-center restrictions and their proximity to formal votes will be observable through legislative tracking
- Water availability concerns, particularly in western states, and energy grid capacity issues in targeted regions are measurable drivers of regulatory pressure
- Tech industry and utility company lobbying intensity and political opposition to moratoriums can be tracked through disclosed advocacy spending and hearing records
- The definition of 'binding' must exclude temporary freezes, permitting delays, or non-binding moratoriums—only formal legal restrictions count toward resolution

Contracts:
- Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 2 in 2026?: At least 2 — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 3 in 2026?: At least 3 — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 4 in 2026?: At least 4 — 13¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 100%)
- Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 5 in 2026?: At least 5 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T01:20:50.303Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "40% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/moratoriumcount
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20number%20of%20U.S.%20states%20that%20formally%20adopt%20a%20binding%20state-level%20moratorium%20on%20data-center%20development%20be%20at%20least%202%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev