22% — Will mortgage rates drop below 5%?
Kalshi 22% · 7 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 16:36:04 UTC

Why this matters:
There is currently no live prediction market data available to estimate the probability of mortgage rates falling below 5 percent. While the current Federal Funds Effective Rate stands at 3.63%, there are no specific contracts tracking mortgage rate targets to provide market-implied odds for such a decline.

Key factors:
- Federal Funds Rate at 3.63%
- No active mortgage rate prediction markets
- Current economic policy stasis

Contracts:
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate — 83¢ Kalshi $828 (weight 53%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps — 7¢ Kalshi $387 (weight 25%)
- Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps — 5¢ Kalshi $318 (weight 20%)
- Will any 2026 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) report a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate below 5.75%?: Yes — 4¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 2%)
- Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T16:20:49.270Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mortgage-rates-below-5
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20mortgage%20rates%20drop%20below%205%25%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev