35% — Will mortgage rates drop below 5%?
Kalshi 31% · Polymarket 42% · 11 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-12 00:51:43 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 11pp (Polymarket higher)

Why this matters:
Current 30-year mortgage rates are not expected to drop below 5 percent in 2026, as prediction markets indicate a significantly higher likelihood of rates hovering in the mid-to-high 5 percent range or higher. With the 30-year rate betting markets showing a 29% probability for hitting 5.70% and a 47% probability for hitting 5.90%, the consensus is leaning toward sticky rates rather than a drop to the 4% range. Current economic conditions are complicated by a 4.3% unemployment rate and a Federal Funds Rate of 3.63%, which continue to exert upward pressure on borrowing costs.

Key factors:
- 30-year mortgage rates
- Fed Funds Rate stability
- stagnant inflation trends
- housing sector sensitivity

Contracts:
- Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 39%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps — 42¢ Kalshi $932 (weight 29%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate — 46¢ Kalshi $548 (weight 17%)
- Will any 2026 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) report a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate below 5.75%?: Yes — 9¢ Kalshi $500 (weight 15%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?: ↓ 5.70% — 27¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-12T00:20:45.513Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mortgage-rates-below-5
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20mortgage%20rates%20drop%20below%205%25%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev