59% — Most awards at the 78th Emmy Awards
Leader: Widow's Bay at 59% · Kalshi 59% · 4 contracts · $37 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 06:41:43 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectation that The Pitt will win the most Emmy Awards at the 78th Emmy Awards ceremony. At 44%, it indicates The Pitt is the leading contender but faces meaningful competition from other shows. The probability hinges on historical Emmy voting patterns, industry perception of each show's quality and cultural impact, and recent critical reception. Widow's Bay and Hacks are tied as secondary contenders at 23% each, suggesting a fragmented field where no show commands overwhelming confidence. The main drivers of movement would be shifts in critic sentiment closer to voting, guild participation dynamics, and any changes to Emmy eligibility or voting procedures. The ceremony itself will definitively resolve the market when award winners are announced, making this a binary outcome dependent on live voting results from Academy members.

Key factors:
- The Pitt commands 44% of implied probability versus 23% for each of the next two contenders, indicating market consensus on a leader but with substantial remaining uncertainty among competitors
- Recent Emmy voting has shown unpredictability across major categories, meaning historical precedent provides limited predictive power for which show ultimately receives the most awards
- The relative trading volume on The Pitt ($29 24h) is substantially lower than runners-up, suggesting lower conviction among active traders on the market leader
- Eligibility windows and Emmy qualification rules for each show would directly impact their competitiveness and available award categories
- Guild voting patterns (writers, directors, actors) can shift outcome probabilities materially if particular membership cohorts show clear preferences for specific shows

Contracts:
- Most awards at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Widow's Bay — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Most awards at the 78th Emmy Awards?: The Pitt — 22¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 100%)
- Most awards at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Pluribus — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Most awards at the 78th Emmy Awards?: Spider-Noir — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T06:20:49.209Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "59% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mostwinsemmys
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Most%20awards%20at%20the%2078th%20Emmy%20Awards
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev