18% — Will Trackhouse Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion
Kalshi 18% · 6 contracts · $302 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:07:34 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the chance that Trackhouse Racing will accumulate the most points across its entire team roster in the 2026 MotoGP season to win the constructors' championship. At 17%, the market is assigning Trackhouse relatively low odds compared to established powerhouses like Ducati, KTM, and others. The current probability likely reflects Trackhouse's historical performance and rider roster compared to competitors, though mid-season performance data and rider consistency will significantly influence this estimate through the year. The 2026 MotoGP season conclusion in November will definitively resolve this outcome.

Key factors:
- Trackhouse's 2025 season performance and points accumulation compared to the championship frontrunners
- The quality and experience of Trackhouse's contracted riders for the 2026 season relative to competing teams
- Motorcycle reliability and development pace—whether Trackhouse's bikes remain competitive or fall further behind leading manufacturers
- Mid-season race results and points standings as of summer 2026, which would provide early indicators of championship viability
- Injuries or departures of key Trackhouse personnel or riders that could impact team performance through the season

Contracts:
- Will Ducati Lenovo Team be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?: Ducati Lenovo Team — 9¢ Kalshi $192 (weight 64%)
- Will Aprilia Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?: Aprilia Racing — 82¢ Kalshi $110 (weight 36%)
- Will Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?: Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?: Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Red Bull KTM Factory Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?: Red Bull KTM Factory Racing — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Trackhouse Racing be the 2026 MotoGP Teams' World Champion?: Trackhouse Racing — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:13.093Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/motogpteams
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trackhouse%20Racing%20be%20the%202026%20MotoGP%20Teams'%20World%20Champion
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev