13% — Will Sadie Sink be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios Kalshi 13% · 20 contracts · $117 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 06:41:44 UTC Why this matters: This contract reflects the estimated likelihood that actress Sadie Sink will be cast in Marvel Studios' next theatrical X-Men film. The 5% probability suggests markets view her casting as unlikely relative to other potential candidates, as shown by comparable contracts pricing Harris Dickinson at 7%. The probability would rise if credible reporting indicated Marvel was pursuing Sink for a specific mutant role, or if industry insiders confirmed her involvement in upcoming X-Men casting announcements. It would fall if Marvel officially cast competing actors or announced X-Men film timelines that excluded her. The key uncertainty driver is the timing and scope of Marvel's next mutant-focused film—currently unscheduled with no announced cast. Resolution will depend on official Marvel Studios announcements regarding X-Men project greenlight and cast reveals, likely occurring at major studios events or through trade publications. Key factors: - No X-Men film has been officially announced by Marvel Studios with production timeline or cast as of July 2026 - Sink's primary recent visibility derives from Stranger Things; comparable young actors being priced 7% or higher suggests her odds reflect limited perceived alignment with Marvel's likely casting direction - Marvel's track record shows casting decisions for major ensemble properties involve A-list or emerging action-adjacent talent, creating competitive disadvantage for most individual candidates - The contract's 5% baseline appears consistent with general background probability for any single actor in an unannounced casting pool of 50+ viable candidates - Harris Dickinson at 7% represents the current market's highest-priced individual actor, suggesting market uncertainty about Marvel's specific casting preferences Contracts: - Will Hugh Jackman be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?: Hugh Jackman — 24¢ Kalshi $103 (weight 88%) - Will Colman Domingo be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?: Colman Domingo — 26¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 11%) - Will Daniel Radcliffe be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?: Daniel Radcliffe — 3¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%) - Will Adam Driver be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?: Adam Driver — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will James McAvoy be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?: James McAvoy — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Harris Dickinson be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?: Harris Dickinson — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Margaret Qualley be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?: Margaret Qualley — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Julia Butters be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?: Julia Butters — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T06:20:49.245Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/moviecast Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sadie%20Sink%20be%20cast%20in%20the%20next%20official%20X-Men%20motion%20picture%20produced%20by%20Marvel%20Studios Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev