95% — Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by June 30?: 129 billion
Polymarket 95% · 1 contracts · $72 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:02:09 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 96% probability that MrBeast will reach 129 billion total views on YouTube by June 30, 2026—roughly 37 days from now. The high probability reflects his historical growth trajectory and subscriber base, which have consistently generated substantial view counts. The main factors are his upload frequency, content performance (which determines views per video), and whether YouTube's algorithm amplification continues at recent levels. Any significant slowdown in content release or viewer engagement would lower the probability. The outcome resolves automatically when YouTube's view counter updates, making this a straightforward measurement-based event with no ambiguity about the final result.

Key factors:
- MrBeast's average daily view velocity over the past 30 days compared to the 1.44 billion views per day needed to reach 129B by June 30
- His upload schedule and typical views-per-video in recent months, accounting for seasonal content performance variations
- YouTube's algorithm distribution patterns and whether recent engagement rates represent sustainable baseline performance
- Potential external events (platform changes, content issues, or other unpredictable factors) that could disrupt normal viewing patterns within the 37-day window
- The gap between 127B and 129B (the leading vs. featured threshold) to assess how tight the clustering of near-term outcomes is

Contracts:
- Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by June 30?: 129 billion — 95¢ Polymarket $72 (weight 100%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-28T19:20:12.097Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mrbeast-hit-billion-views-june-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20MrBeast%20hit%20___%20Billion%20views%20by%20June%2030%3F%3A%20129%20billion
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev