95% — Will Russell Cleveland be the Democratic nominee for MT-01
Kalshi 95% · 1 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:06 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Russell Cleveland will win the Democratic primary for Montana's 1st Congressional District. At 31%, the market is suggesting Cleveland faces meaningful but uncertain prospects in what may be a competitive primary race. Primary outcomes depend on several concrete factors: candidate field composition and whether stronger-name Democrats enter the race, voter turnout patterns in Democratic-leaning areas, local fundraising and endorsement dynamics, and how national Democratic resources are allocated to this seat. The race likely will be substantially clarified after the primary filing deadline and once final candidate lineups are known. If high-profile candidates enter or decline to run, the probability would shift significantly. Local polling data and early voting patterns would provide additional clarity closer to election day.

Key factors:
- Whether other established Democratic candidates file to run, which would directly impact Cleveland's primary vote share
- Local fundraising totals and major endorsements from Montana Democratic Party figures and national groups
- Voter turnout levels in Democratic strongholds within MT-01, which typically determine primary outcomes
- Name recognition and prior electoral experience of Cleveland relative to competing primary candidates
- Primary filing deadlines and final candidate field composition in the coming weeks

Contracts:
- Will Sam Forstag be the Democratic nominee for MT-01?: Sam Forstag — 95¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-04T13:20:12.268Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mt01d
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Russell%20Cleveland%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20MT-01
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev