15% — Will JFET leave the John Fetterman
Kalshi 15% · 6 contracts · $283 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:35 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 13% probability that Senator John Fetterman will leave office before a specified date. The relatively low probability reflects that Fetterman currently holds his Senate seat with no announced resignation plans, and senators typically complete their terms absent serious health crises or unexpected circumstances. The probability would rise if credible reporting emerged about his health status, personal circumstances, or stated intentions to resign. The primary uncertainty driver is Fetterman's long-standing health challenges, which have been publicly documented but appear stable under current management. Any significant health event or formal announcement regarding his legislative future would substantially alter this probability. The contract structure suggests the market is pricing in a low but non-negligible risk of departure within the specified timeframe.

Key factors:
- Fetterman's documented history of depression and stroke recovery, which remain potential variables in his continued Senate service
- Absence of current public reporting or statements indicating intention to resign from his Senate position
- Historical precedent showing Senate resignations are uncommon except in cases of health emergencies, legal troubles, or explicit career transitions
- The specific resolution date or condition embedded in the contract, which determines whether early departure scenarios count toward settlement
- Market volume and pricing across related political resignation contracts, which contextualizes confidence levels across comparable outcomes

Contracts:
- Will Marjorie Taylor Greene leave the Republican party?: Marjorie Taylor Greene — 44¢ Kalshi $246 (weight 87%)
- Will JFET leave the John Fetterman?: John Fetterman — 7¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 12%)
- Will Henry Cuellar leave the Democratic?: Henry Cuellar — 7¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican?: Lisa Murkowski — 16¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will Thomas Massie leave the Republican?: Thomas Massie — 8¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will Don Bacon leave the Republican?: Don Bacon — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.204Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mtgswitch
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20JFET%20leave%20the%20John%20Fetterman
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev