92% — Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 7.2 million skier visits in Q3 2026
Leader: Above 6.6 million at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 5 contracts · $105 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:20:59 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract predicts whether Vail Resorts will report more than 7.2 million skier visits across its resorts during Q3 2026 (July-September), with markets currently pricing this outcome at 47% probability. Q3 represents the shoulder season between summer and fall skiing, making visitation dependent on weather patterns, summer activity levels, and school holiday schedules. The probability reflects uncertainty around whether warm temperatures or precipitation patterns will drive or suppress visits during this typically moderate-traffic quarter. Resolution will occur in October 2026 when Vail Resorts reports official Q3 earnings and skier visit data, providing exact confirmation of the threshold. Key drivers include competition from alternative summer recreation, international tourism patterns, and regional weather conditions across Vail's North American resort portfolio.

Key factors:
- Q3 is historically a lower-traffic season compared to winter months, so the 7.2 million threshold represents a specific operational performance level that requires above-average shoulder-season demand
- Weather patterns in July-September 2026, particularly temperature and precipitation at high elevations, will directly influence both summer activity and early-season ski conditions
- Vail Resorts' official Q3 2026 earnings report (expected October 2026) will provide exact skier visit figures, making this binary outcome completely verifiable
- Competitive pressure from alternative summer destinations and economic conditions affecting discretionary travel spending will influence visitation levels during this period
- The contract's 47% probability suggests near-parity between outcomes, indicating significant genuine uncertainty rather than a consensus view

Contracts:
- Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 6.6 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 6.6 million — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 6.9 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 6.9 million — 87¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 36%)
- Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 7.2 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 7.2 million — 55¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 38%)
- Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 7.5 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 7.5 million — 11¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 26%)
- Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 7.8 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 7.8 million — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
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