16% — Will Elon Musk leave DOGE?
Kalshi 84% · 15 contracts · $67K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 03:36:10 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
There is currently no active prediction market data regarding Elon Musk's involvement in a Department of Government Efficiency or his potential resignation from such a role. Current market interest regarding Elon Musk is focused on his long-term net worth, with markets reflecting a 19% chance his net worth exceeds $1.1 trillion by year-end 2026.

Key factors:
- No specific DOGE department metrics
- Elon Musk net worth market pricing
- Tesla stock sensitivity
- Long-term economic outlook

Contracts:
- Will Elon Musk's net worth for July be above $700 billion? — 84¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 12%)
- Will Elon Musk's net worth for December 31, 2026 be above $800 billion? — 32¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 7%)
- Will Elon Musk's net worth for December 31, 2026 be above $900 billion? — 27¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 6%)
- Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.0 trillion? — 22¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 2%)
- Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.1 trillion? — 19¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 5%)
- Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.2 trillion? — 11¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 4%)
- Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $1.9 trillion? — 8¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 9%)
- Will Elon Musk's net worth on December 31, 2026 be above $2.0 trillion? — 6¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 12%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-22T06:41:51.331Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/musk-doge
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Elon%20Musk%20leave%20DOGE%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev