77% — Will Elon Musk leave DOGE?
Kalshi 99% · 15 contracts · $157K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 09:27:44 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $790 billion?" 92¢; kalshi "Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $780 billion?" 94¢; kalshi "Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $770 billion?" 93¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.

Key factors:
- No market data on govt efficiency
- Net worth tracking dominates
- Musk financial outlook stable

Contracts:
- Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $690 billion? — 99¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 4%)
- Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $700 billion? — 98¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 2%)
- Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $710 billion? — 98¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 1%)
- Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $720 billion? — 98¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 1%)
- Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $730 billion? — 98¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 2%)
- Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $740 billion? — 98¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 2%)
- Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $750 billion? — 98¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 4%)
- Will Elon Musk's net worth for June be above $760 billion? — 97¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 4%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T06:41:19.573Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/musk-doge
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Elon%20Musk%20leave%20DOGE%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev