12% — Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Kalshi 12% · 6 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 20:31:29 UTC

Why this matters:
A 10% probability means the market estimates approximately a 1-in-10 chance that Chase Briscoe wins the NASCAR Cup Series championship this season. This relatively low probability reflects his historical performance and competitive position within a field of dozens of drivers competing for the title. The probability could shift based on two main factors: his consistency in race finishes throughout the season, which determines playoff qualification and seeding, and his team's technical performance relative to established championship contenders. The championship will ultimately be decided in November 2026 through the playoff format, with each race result between now and then providing data that would either strengthen or weaken his odds depending on wins, top-5 finishes, and playoff advancement.

Key factors:
- Chase Briscoe's historical championship odds and performance metrics compared to favorites like Ty Gibbs and Joey Logano
- His current season statistics through May 2026, including wins, top-5 finishes, and points standing relative to playoff cut-off position
- Wood Brothers Racing team's car performance and technical developments compared to higher-funded championship-contending teams
- Injury status and driver consistency factors that could affect his ability to compete over the full season and playoffs
- Market depth and liquidity of the Briscoe contract, which shows relatively low trading volume ($4,489 in 24h), suggesting limited consensus confidence

Contracts:
- Will Chase Elliott be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Chase Elliott — 6¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 57%)
- Will Denny Hamlin be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Denny Hamlin — 31¢ Kalshi $854 (weight 26%)
- Will Tyler Reddick be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Tyler Reddick — 19¢ Kalshi $520 (weight 16%)
- Will Kyle Larson be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Kyle Larson — 9¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 1%)
- Will Christopher Bell be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Christopher Bell — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Chase Briscoe — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T20:20:49.750Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nascarcupseries
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chase%20Briscoe%20be%20the%20NASCAR%20Cup%20Series%20Champion
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev