10% — Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion Kalshi 10% · 9 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 11:12:00 UTC Why this matters: Chase Briscoe's 10% championship probability reflects current market assessment of his likelihood to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series title among all eligible drivers. This probability is derived from betting markets and indicates modest but non-negligible odds compared to favorites like Denny Hamlin (37%) and other top contenders. The championship outcome depends on several seasons-long factors: driver performance consistency through the full regular season, playoff advancement and seeding, vehicle reliability and pit crew execution during high-pressure races, and performance in the final championship races. The key catalyst determining whether Briscoe's odds rise or fall will be his results through the regular season and into the NASCAR Playoffs, which structure the path to the championship. His current position in points standings and performance trajectory relative to competitors will meaningfully influence whether his probability increases or decreases as the season progresses. Key factors: - Chase Briscoe's current points position in the 2026 standings and his performance trend relative to top contenders - Historical consistency of his team's vehicle performance and pit crew execution throughout full-season racing - Playoff seeding and advancement status, which determines his pathway to the championship-deciding final races - Comparative performance metrics against the current favorites (Hamlin at 37%, Reddick at 10%, Blaney at 12%) - Upcoming race schedule performance, particularly in high-point events that significantly impact championship positioning Contracts: - Will Denny Hamlin be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Denny Hamlin — 37¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 43%) - Will Ryan Blaney be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Ryan Blaney — 11¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 23%) - Will Christopher Bell be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Christopher Bell — 9¢ Kalshi $739 (weight 10%) - Will Joey Logano be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Joey Logano — 3¢ Kalshi $535 (weight 8%) - Will Ty Gibbs be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Ty Gibbs — 10¢ Kalshi $408 (weight 6%) - Will Tyler Reddick be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Tyler Reddick — 7¢ Kalshi $307 (weight 4%) - Will Kyle Larson be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Kyle Larson — 5¢ Kalshi $211 (weight 3%) - Will Chase Elliott be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Chase Elliott — 4¢ Kalshi $160 (weight 2%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T10:20:49.811Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nascarcupseries Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chase%20Briscoe%20be%20the%20NASCAR%20Cup%20Series%20Champion Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev