75% — Nasdaq 100 (NDX) above ___ end of 2026?: >$24,000
Leader: 25,249.86 or above at 75% · Kalshi 75% · 2 contracts · $303 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:13 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 25249.85 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 25,249.86 or above — 75¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 1%)
- Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 33,000.01 or above — 23¢ Kalshi $301 (weight 99%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:12.181Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "75% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nasdaq-100-ndx-above
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Nasdaq%20100%20(NDX)%20above%20___%20end%20of%202026%3F%3A%20%3E%2424%2C000
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev