79% — Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28799.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST Leader: 31,000 or above at 79% · Kalshi 79% · 7 contracts · $58 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 14:22:23 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract estimates a 93% probability that the Nasdaq-100 will trade above 28,799.99 at some point between now and December 31, 2026 at 4pm EST. The high probability reflects current market positioning—with the index near historical highs—combined with an eight-month time window that provides ample opportunity for the threshold to be reached even if the index experiences moderate pullbacks. The probability would decline if sustained economic weakness, rising interest rates, or sector rotation away from large-cap technology stocks creates downward pressure. Conversely, strong corporate earnings, Fed accommodation, or broad-based equity strength would reinforce this view. The contract will resolve when the year-end deadline passes; interim volatility and earnings seasons through 2026 will likely be the primary drivers of probability shifts as they influence expectations for tech valuations heading into year-end. Key factors: - The Nasdaq-100 closed 2024 above 20,000 and has continued appreciating in early 2026; the 28,800 level represents meaningful but not extreme appreciation from recent levels - Tighter contracts (28,400 and above) trade at 83%, while looser thresholds (27,700) trade much lower, indicating significant concentration of probability in the 27,700–28,800 range - An eight-month runway to year-end 2026 substantially increases the statistical likelihood of touching the strike price versus a near-term event, reducing tail-risk sensitivity - Corporate earnings reports, Fed policy announcements, and macroeconomic data releases through Q3 and Q4 2026 will be primary drivers of intermediate probability adjustments - Higher-strike contracts (33,000) trade at only 15%, suggesting markets price substantial uncertainty about sustained upside momentum beyond the primary threshold Contracts: - Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,000 or above — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31199.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,200 or above — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31399.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,400 or above — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30799.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 30,800 or above — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31599.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,600 or above — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31799.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,800 or above — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 32,000 or above — 54¢ Kalshi $58 (weight 100%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.575Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "79% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nasdaq100maxy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Nasdaq-100%20be%20above%2028799.99%20after%20issuance%20and%20before%20Dec%2031%2C%202026%20at%204pm%20EST Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev