25% — Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22800.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
Leader: 22,400 or below at 25% · Kalshi 25% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:35:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects a 24% chance that the Nasdaq-100 index will dip below 22,800 at some point between now and the end of 2026. The complementary 76% probability on the "above 28,000" contract suggests market participants expect the index to trade in a relatively elevated range through year-end. The current level reflects expectations about overall market volatility and equity valuations over the next seven months. Factors pushing this probability higher include recession fears, interest rate increases, or corporate earnings disappointments. Factors pushing it lower include continued economic growth, stable monetary policy, or strong technology sector performance. The primary uncertainty driver is the path of Federal Reserve policy and macroeconomic data releases through mid-to-late 2026, particularly employment reports and inflation metrics that typically influence equity valuations.

Key factors:
- The Nasdaq-100 closed at approximately 19,700-20,500 in early May 2026, making a 17-20% decline needed to breach the 22,800 floor, implying moderate downside risk is being priced in
- The complementary contract showing 90% probability of Nasdaq-100 staying above 28,000 indicates asymmetric upside expectations relative to downside, suggesting the market distribution is skewed toward higher valuations
- Federal Reserve rate decisions and inflation data throughout 2026 will be the primary catalysts that could shift this probability significantly higher or lower
- Earnings season results in Q2, Q3, and Q4 2026 will determine whether valuations remain supportable at current levels or contract sharply

Contracts:
- Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22400.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,400 or below — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22600.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,600 or below — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22800.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,800 or below — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22200.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,200 or below — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 22000.01 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 22,000 or below — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.076Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nasdaq100miny
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Nasdaq-100%20be%20below%2022800.01%20after%20issuance%20and%20before%20Dec%2031%2C%202026%20at%204pm%20EST
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev