23% — Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 28000 and 28499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST Leader: 33,000.01 or above at 23% · Kalshi 23% · 6 contracts · $496 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract settles if the Nasdaq-100 closes between 28,000 and 28,499.99 on December 31, 2026, currently assigned a 16% probability by the leading contract. The low probability suggests market participants expect the index to either exceed this range substantially or fall short of it. The current level reflects uncertainty about equity market performance over the next seven months, with the Nasdaq-100 needing to navigate economic data, corporate earnings, and Federal Reserve policy through year-end. The main drivers of this probability are expectations for broader tech sector growth versus recession concerns, and whether current market valuations persist or compress. Resolution will occur automatically on December 31, 2026 at 4:00 PM EST when the index's official closing level is recorded, making this a straightforward factual outcome with no discretionary interpretation required. Key factors: - Current Nasdaq-100 level relative to the 28,000-28,499.99 range and implied annualized growth rate needed to reach that band by year-end - Market expectations for corporate earnings growth and profit margins in the technology sector through 2026 - Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory and inflation data releases between now and December 31, 2026 - Concentration risk in mega-cap technology stocks that comprise a significant portion of Nasdaq-100 weighting - Realized volatility and drawdown severity if equity markets experience a significant correction in the second half of 2026 Contracts: - Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 33,000.01 or above — 23¢ Kalshi $301 (weight 61%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 18,999.99 or below — 7¢ Kalshi $109 (weight 22%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 31000 and 31499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,000 to 31,499.99 — 6¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 3%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 31500 and 31999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,500 to 31,999.99 — 4¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 1%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 29500 and 29999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 29,500 to 29,999.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 10%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 30500 and 30999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 30,500 to 30,999.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 4%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.229Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nasdaq100y Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Nasdaq-100%20be%20between%2028000%20and%2028499.99%20at%20the%20end%20of%20Dec%2031%2C%202026%20at%204pm%20EST Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev