21% — Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 28000 and 28499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST Leader: 33,000.01 or above at 21% · Kalshi 21% · 6 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 12:59:57 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract reflects a 24% probability that the Nasdaq-100 closes between 28,000 and 28,499.99 on December 31, 2026. Market participants are pricing in significantly higher index levels by year-end, with the most-traded contract suggesting above 33,000 is more likely. The current level reflects optimism about tech sector growth but carries risk from potential interest-rate increases, earnings disappointments, or economic slowdown. Resolution depends entirely on market price at 4 PM EST on December 31, 2026, making macroeconomic data releases, Fed policy announcements, and quarterly earnings between now and year-end the primary drivers of contract repricing. Key factors: - The Nasdaq-100 was approximately 20,700 on August 9, 2026; reaching 28,000–28,500 by December requires 35–38% appreciation in 4.5 months - The market's highest-probability outcome (above 33,000) suggests traders expect >59% year-to-date gains, indicating strong growth expectations already priced in - Interest-rate expectations and inflation data through October–November 2026 will likely be decisive factors, as tightening pressure would compress valuations - The 28,000–28,500 band ranks well below the most-bullish outcomes but above bear-case scenarios, positioning it in the lower-middle range of possibilities - Earnings revisions for major Nasdaq constituents (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) in Q3–Q4 2026 will provide key validation or contradiction of growth assumptions Contracts: - Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 33,000.01 or above — 21¢ Kalshi $77 (weight 1%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 18,999.99 or below — 6¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 96%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 32000 and 32499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 32,000 to 32,499.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $125 (weight 2%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 25500 and 25999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 25,500 to 25,999.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 26500 and 26999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 26,500 to 26,999.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 27000 and 27499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 27,000 to 27,499.99 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T12:20:50.444Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nasdaq100y Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Nasdaq-100%20be%20between%2028000%20and%2028499.99%20at%20the%20end%20of%20Dec%2031%2C%202026%20at%204pm%20EST Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev