82% — Will the natural gas close price be above $2.399 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Leader: above $2.499 at 82% · Kalshi 82% · 20 contracts · $158 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:16 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract measures whether U.S. natural gas futures will close above $2.399 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on April 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT. Markets currently assign a 94% probability to this outcome, reflecting expectations that prices will remain relatively elevated. Natural gas pricing depends on seasonal demand patterns, weather forecasts affecting heating and cooling needs, inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, and global supply dynamics. The main uncertainty hinges on whether storage levels normalize through the spring and early summer, and whether any supply disruptions or unexpected demand spikes occur before the resolution date. The weekly EIA inventory reports and weather forecasts through late April will be the primary drivers of price movement in the weeks leading up to settlement.

Key factors:
- Current natural gas futures prices are trading in a range where $2.399 represents a modest premium to recent trading levels, making the high probability partially reflect near-term momentum
- EIA weekly inventory reports typically drive short-term volatility; unexpectedly low storage levels could support prices above the threshold, while builds could pressure them downward
- Spring weather patterns between now and late April will significantly influence demand; colder-than-normal temperatures would support higher prices, while mild conditions would pressure them lower
- The contract resolves in approximately 4 weeks, limiting the timeframe for major supply shocks, which may explain the elevated probability versus longer-dated contracts
- Natural gas above $3.899 (the highest strike shown) trades at only 3 cents, indicating market consensus that extreme price spikes are unlikely during this window

Contracts:
- Will the natural gas close price be above 2.499  USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.499 — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the natural gas close price be above 2.299  USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.299 — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the natural gas close price be above 1.299  USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.299 — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the natural gas close price be above 1.199  USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.199 — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the natural gas close price be above 0.999  USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $0.999 — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the natural gas close price be above 2.099  USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.099 — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the natural gas close price be above 1.399  USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.399 — 71¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the natural gas close price be above 1.099  USD/MMBtu on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.099 — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/natgasmon
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20natural%20gas%20close%20price%20be%20above%20%242.399%20on%20Apr%2030%2C%202026%20at%205pm%20EDT
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev