96% — Will the natural gas close price be above 3.199  USD/MMBtu on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Leader: above $2.999 at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 10 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 06:11:44 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the natural gas close price be above 2.999 USD/MMBtu on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.999 — 96¢ Kalshi $54 (weight 3%)
- Will the natural gas close price be above 1.999 USD/MMBtu on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.999 — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the natural gas close price be above 2.099 USD/MMBtu on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.099 — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the natural gas close price be above 2.199 USD/MMBtu on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.199 — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the natural gas close price be above 2.299 USD/MMBtu on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.299 — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the natural gas close price be above 2.399 USD/MMBtu on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.399 — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the natural gas close price be above 3.099 USD/MMBtu on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $3.099 — 83¢ Kalshi $102 (weight 5%)
- Will the natural gas close price be above 3.199 USD/MMBtu on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $3.199 — 51¢ Kalshi $242 (weight 11%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-12T01:20:51.409Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/natgasw
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20natural%20gas%20close%20price%20be%20above%203.199%20%20USD%2FMMBtu%20on%20Apr%2024%2C%202026%20at%205pm%20EDT
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev