59% — NBA Game Predictions
Leader: Oklahoma City at San Antonio Winner?: San Antonio at 59% · Kalshi 59% · 2 contracts · $2.6M volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:42:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
These NBA Game 6 matchups represent market expectations for two potential playoff series-deciding contests. The 50% aggregated probability reflects uncertainty around outcomes that depend on team performance, injury status, and recent form. San Antonio appears favored as a 65¢ contract at Minnesota, while Detroit shows as an underdog at 38¢ against Cleveland. The probabilities would shift based on updated injury reports, performance in earlier series games, and betting volume changes as games approach. These contracts will resolve once each Game 6 concludes, with the winner determined by final score.

Key factors:
- San Antonio contract trading at 65¢ indicates market consensus favoring them over Minnesota, with significantly higher 24-hour volume ($523k) on the San Antonio side
- Detroit trading at 38¢ against Cleveland shows clear underdog positioning, with Cleveland holding 61¢ and higher relative trading volume
- The 24-hour volume totals ($617k for Minnesota, $523k for San Antonio, $447k for Detroit, $344k for Cleveland) demonstrate active trader engagement but unequal distribution across contracts
- Resolution dates depend on series progression—these Game 6 contracts only matter if series reach 3-3 before the decisive game
- Injury status of key rotation players and performance trends from earlier series games will create probability shifts before these games are played

Contracts:
- Game 6: Oklahoma City at San Antonio Winner?: San Antonio — 59¢ Kalshi $1.1M (weight 41%)
- Game 6: Oklahoma City at San Antonio Winner?: Oklahoma City — 41¢ Kalshi $1.5M (weight 59%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T13:20:12.831Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "59% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nba-games
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=NBA%20Game%20Predictions
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev