12% — NBA Rookie of the Year Kalshi 12% · 10 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 19:03:55 UTC Why this matters: This 13% probability reflects the aggregated betting market's assessment of the likelihood that one of the listed rookies wins the 2025-26 NBA Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The relatively low probability compared to other markets (Polymarket averages 19%) suggests meaningful uncertainty about which player will ultimately lead the statistical categories or win the voting. The outcome depends on rookie performance metrics—points, assists, and shooting efficiency—across the full season through April 2026, combined with narrative momentum and voter preferences. The 9-percentage-point gap between venues indicates disagreement about whether current frontrunners like Fernando Mendoza (22¢) or Jadarian Price (11¢) will sustain their early performance or whether other candidates will emerge. Resolution occurs in late April 2026 when the NBA announces the official award winner. Key factors: - Fernando Mendoza trades at 22¢ on Kalshi but the aggregate market is only 13%, indicating potential overvaluation or limited contract liquidity on that venue - Volume concentration ($1,793 in 24h volume on Jadarian Price) versus minimal activity on lower-priced candidates suggests limited price discovery for mid-tier rookies - Offensive Rookie of the Year historically correlates with total points and usage rate; candidates must maintain scoring efficiency over an 82-game season rather than showing early promise - The 9pp cross-venue discrepancy (Polymarket 19% vs Kalshi 10%) reflects different market participant bases and risk appetites rather than resolved information - Early-season performance can shift dramatically—rookie wall effects, injury probability, and team trading decisions by the deadline (February 2026) create fundamental uncertainty Contracts: - Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carson Beck — 3¢ Kalshi $734 (weight 28%) - Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carnell Tate — 13¢ Kalshi $557 (weight 21%) - Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Caleb Downs — 18¢ Kalshi $330 (weight 13%) - Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Fernando Mendoza — 23¢ Kalshi $258 (weight 10%) - Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Rueben Bain Jr. — 14¢ Kalshi $237 (weight 9%) - Will Makai Lemon win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Makai Lemon — 7¢ Kalshi $235 (weight 9%) - Will Jordyn Tyson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jordyn Tyson — 13¢ Kalshi $134 (weight 5%) - Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jadarian Price — 9¢ Kalshi $83 (weight 3%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T18:20:51.195Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nba-rookie-of Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=NBA%20Rookie%20of%20the%20Year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev