8% — NBA Rookie of the Year
Kalshi 8% · 7 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 12:23:23 UTC

Why this matters:
This 10% probability represents the aggregated market estimate that one of these five specific players will win NBA Rookie of the Year in the 2025-26 season. The market is currently pricing these candidates at relatively low odds, with Jadarian Price leading at 15% for Offensive Rookie and Caleb Downs at 11% for Defensive Rookie. The probability level reflects uncertainty about which rookies will sustain strong performance throughout a full season and emerge above other candidates. The main factors driving this estimate are early-season performance metrics, playing time allocation, and team success—all of which will accumulate over the remaining months of the season. The resolution will occur in June 2026 when the NBA announces the official award winners, making the remainder of the regular season and any performance patterns the primary catalysts that could shift these probabilities.

Key factors:
- Jadarian Price currently holds the highest individual contract probability at 15%, suggesting market confidence in his early-season offensive production relative to other forwards
- The top five contracts collectively sum to approximately 56%, meaning the market assigns 44% probability to other rookies not listed or to none of these five winning
- Trading volume on Price's contract ($3,028 in 24h) is notably higher than other candidates, indicating this is the most actively debated rookie outcome
- Caleb Downs' 11% probability for Defensive Rookie shows separate market assessment of defensive vs. offensive contributions as distinct award categories
- The gap between the highest-priced contract (15¢) and lowest (7¢) spans more than two-fold, reflecting material disagreement on which players maintain sufficient production through season's end

Contracts:
- Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Fernando Mendoza — 7¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 26%)
- Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Caleb Downs — 20¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 23%)
- Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Rueben Bain Jr. — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 18%)
- Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jadarian Price — 14¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 14%)
- Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: KC Concepcion — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 13%)
- Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carnell Tate — 6¢ Kalshi $476 (weight 6%)
- Will Arvell Reese win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Arvell Reese — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-25T11:20:50.490Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nba-rookie-of
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=NBA%20Rookie%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev