35% — NBA Sixth Man of the Year Winner Kalshi 35% · 5 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 13:21:14 UTC Why this matters: This 36% probability represents the estimated chance that a specific player wins the NBA Sixth Man of the Year award for the 2025-26 season. The aggregated market pricing reflects uncertainty about which reserve player will have the strongest impact off the bench this season. The award typically goes to a high-usage backup scorer or reliable playmaker whose team performance and individual statistics stand out among candidates. The primary drivers of this probability are the player's playing time consistency, scoring efficiency, and team success—all of which will be finalized when the NBA season concludes. The award will be determined in June 2026 when the NBA announces its award winners, at which point the market will resolve based on the official voting results from media and fan panels. Key factors: - Player's average minutes per game and whether bench role remains stable throughout the season - Total points and efficiency metrics compared to other sixth man candidates over 82 games - Team's overall win-loss record and playoff seeding, as voters often favor contributors on successful teams - Voter perception influenced by nationally televised games and player visibility during the season - Competing candidates' performance levels—the award is relative, so injury or decline among other bench scorers could shift probability Contracts: - Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao Winner?: Manny Pacquiao — 38¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 57%) - Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao Winner?: Floyd Mayweather Jr. — 60¢ Kalshi $745 (weight 39%) - How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?: At least 14.00M bpd — 10¢ Kalshi $70 (weight 4%) - How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?: At least 14.10M bpd — 6¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) - How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 430 — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T13:20:50.100Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nba-sixth-man-of-winner Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=NBA%20Sixth%20Man%20of%20the%20Year%20Winner Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev