37% — Nikola Vučević: 1+ threes
Kalshi 37% · 20 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:41 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract resolves to yes if Nikola Vučević makes at least one three-pointer in a specified game, with the market currently pricing this outcome at 40%. Vučević's three-point volume and accuracy depend on his role in his team's offensive system, his playing time that night, and defensive adjustments from opponents. Players at his position who see heavy usage sometimes shift toward perimeter shooting as spacing needs evolve, while aging or injury considerations can affect both opportunity and performance. The resolution hinges on the actual game performance on the scheduled date, where factors like opponent defense, Vučević's health status, and his specific role in the team's gameplan directly determine the outcome. Recent form and shooting efficiency trends provide context, but individual game variance remains substantial for shot-making probabilities.

Key factors:
- Vučević's season three-point attempt rate and whether it has trended higher or lower in recent games
- His field goal and three-point shooting percentages year-to-date compared to his career norms
- Expected playing time and role in that specific game based on team rotation patterns and injury status
- Defensive matchup characteristics of the opposing team, particularly how they defend centers on the perimeter
- Whether the game context (pace, score differential expectations) typically correlates with higher or lower three-point volume

Contracts:
- Chet Holmgren: 2+ threes: Chet Holmgren: 2+ — 41¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 22%)
- LeBron James: 2+ threes: LeBron James: 2+ — 46¢ Kalshi $947 (weight 14%)
- LeBron James: 3+ threes: LeBron James: 3+ — 20¢ Kalshi $892 (weight 13%)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3+ threes: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 3+ — 17¢ Kalshi $745 (weight 11%)
- Cade Cunningham: 4+ threes: Cade Cunningham: 4+ — 18¢ Kalshi $345 (weight 5%)
- Duncan Robinson: 3+ threes: Duncan Robinson: 3+ — 54¢ Kalshi $345 (weight 5%)
- Austin Reaves: 4+ threes: Austin Reaves: 4+ — 18¢ Kalshi $320 (weight 5%)
- Duncan Robinson: 4+ threes: Duncan Robinson: 4+ — 32¢ Kalshi $288 (weight 4%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nba3pt
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Nikola%20Vu%C4%8Devi%C4%87%3A%201%2B%20threes
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev