28% — Will Chet Holmgren be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team
Kalshi 22% · 14 contracts · $383 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 19:24:12 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 26% likelihood that Chet Holmgren receives All-Pro honors at the third-team level for the 2025-26 NBA season. Holmgren's selection chances depend primarily on his defensive impact, availability, and statistical output over the full season relative to other frontcourt competitors. The All-Pro voting typically occurs in late April 2026, with results announced shortly after, making the remainder of the regular season and his health status critical variables. Current positioning suggests moderate uncertainty about whether he ranks among the top defensive forwards and centers—higher than fringe candidates but below consensus selections like Ausar Thompson (96¢) in related defensive markets.

Key factors:
- Holmgren's games played and injury history through end of regular season (April 2026)
- His defensive box-score metrics (steals, blocks, defensive rebounds) relative to other frontcourt candidates
- All-Pro voter preferences for positional allocation and whether third team recognizes dual-position eligibility
- Comparison to other likely third-team candidates at forward/center positions
- Team playoff seeding and performance, which historically influences All-Pro consideration

Contracts:
- Will Tyrese Maxey be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Tyrese Maxey — 31¢ Kalshi $298 (weight 30%)
- Will Jalen Brunson be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Jalen Brunson — 27¢ Kalshi $81 (weight 23%)
- Will Jalen Duren be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Jalen Duren — 74¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 8%)
- Will Cade Cunningham be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Cade Cunningham — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 4%)
- Will Devin Booker be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Devin Booker — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 4%)
- Will Donovan Mitchell be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Donovan Mitchell — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 4%)
- Will Jaylen Brown be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Jaylen Brown — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 4%)
- Will Jalen Johnson be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Jalen Johnson — 61¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 4%)
- ... and 6 more

Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nba3rdteam
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chet%20Holmgren%20be%20selected%20to%20the%202025-26%20All-Pro%20Basketball%203rd%20Team
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev