22% — Will Bam Adebayo win Defensive Player of the Year Kalshi 22% · 8 contracts · $7 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 10:43:43 UTC Why this matters: This 22% probability indicates roughly 1-in-5 odds that Bam Adebayo wins the 2026-27 NBA Defensive Player of the Year award. The estimate reflects that while Adebayo is considered a strong defensive presence for the Miami Heat, he faces significant competition from other elite defenders. The probability is primarily driven by two factors: Adebayo's consistent defensive performance and availability relative to peers, and the strength of the defensive field—notably Victor Wembanyama and OG Anunoby, both priced at 32¢, suggest voters may have alternative top-tier options. Team success matters substantially for DPOY voting, so Heat playoff performance and whether Miami contends for titles would materially shift expectations. The award will be decided in June 2027 following the regular season, when voting patterns become clear based on actual defensive metrics and team performance throughout the season. Key factors: - Adebayo's individual defensive metrics (blocks, steals, defensive rebounds, rim protection) relative to Wembanyama, Anunoby, and other contenders - Miami Heat's regular-season record and playoff seeding, as DPOY voters typically favor players on winning teams - Injury status and games played for Adebayo and competing defenders, since durability affects award consideration - Changes in NBA defensive evaluation criteria or voting patterns that might favor guards/wings over centers - Wembanyama's continued development curve, given he is tied with Adebayo at 32¢ despite being younger and a rising star Contracts: - Will Victor Wembanyama win Defensive Player of the Year?: Victor Wembanyama — 65¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 100%) - Will Ausar Thompson win Defensive Player of the Year?: Ausar Thompson — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Amen Thompson win Defensive Player of the Year?: Amen Thompson — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Bam Adebayo win Defensive Player of the Year?: Bam Adebayo — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Cooper Flagg win Defensive Player of the Year?: Cooper Flagg — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Chet Holmgren win Defensive Player of the Year?: Chet Holmgren — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jaren Jackson Jr. win Defensive Player of the Year?: Jaren Jackson Jr. — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Rudy Gobert win Defensive Player of the Year?: Rudy Gobert — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T10:20:51.417Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nbadpoy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bam%20Adebayo%20win%20Defensive%20Player%20of%20the%20Year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev