76% — How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10 Leader: 3+ international-born players drafted at 76% · Kalshi 76% · 3 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 03:10:18 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This market predicts that 6 or more freshmen players will be selected in the top 10 picks of the 2026 NFL Draft. The current 78% probability reflects expectations that a significant portion of the draft's premium selections will go to rookie college players rather than established professionals or trades. This level is driven by typical draft patterns where teams prioritize high-need positions filled by top college talent, and by assessments of this year's freshman class strength relative to upper-classmen prospects. The NFL Draft scheduled for late April 2026 will definitively resolve this outcome by revealing how many freshmen are actually selected in picks 1-10. Key factors include: (1) the relative talent depth and NFL readiness of the 2026 freshman class versus juniors and seniors; (2) early draft analysis and mock drafts from professional scouts; (3) teams' publicly stated priorities and need positions heading into the draft; (4) any late-season college injuries that might affect prospect evaluations; (5) the specific rules or definitions used to classify freshman status for contract resolution purposes. Key factors: - The NFL Draft's actual selections in picks 1-10 will determine whether 6+ freshmen are chosen, making this directly verifiable on draft day - Mock drafts and scout consensus on freshman vs. upperclassman prospects in the top 10 range provide leading indicators of market probability accuracy - College football performance in the 2025 season and any late-season injuries to top prospects could shift valuations between freshmen and older players - The specific definition of 'freshman' used in the contract resolution (redshirts, enrolled freshmen, etc.) affects which players count toward the threshold - Historical draft patterns show freshman representation in top 10 has varied from 2-7 players in recent years, providing baseline expectations Contracts: - How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round?: 3+ international-born players drafted — 76¢ Kalshi $542 (weight 8%) - How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round?: 5+ international-born players drafted — 23¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 66%) - How many international-born players will be drafted in the 1st round?: 4+ international-born players drafted — 7¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 26%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "76% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nbadraftcat Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20freshmen%20players%20will%20be%20drafted%20in%20the%20top%2010 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev