35% — Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft Kalshi 35% · 14 contracts · $746K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 21:04:49 UTC Why this matters: The current 49% probability indicates that a specific player is favored to be selected third in the 2026 NBA Draft, though this represents plurality support rather than a consensus. The leading candidate faces meaningful competition from a runner-up at 38%, suggesting the third pick remains genuinely uncertain. Factors driving this probability include pre-draft evaluations by NBA scouts, team needs and draft position, player performance metrics from the 2025-26 season, and reported draft board rankings from league insiders. The probability will likely shift as the NBA Draft approaches on its scheduled date, when official team intentions and final mock drafts become clearer. Volatility may spike closer to the event as new workouts, interviews, and injury reports emerge. Key factors: - The leading outcome has 49% implied probability versus 38% for the runner-up, indicating material uncertainty rather than a clear favorite - Pre-draft evaluation reports and mock drafts from established NBA analysts directly influence positioning of potential third-pick candidates - The team holding the third pick's publicly stated needs and historical draft patterns affect which players are considered most likely at that position - Recent performance metrics and injury status of top prospects would shift probabilities if significant new information emerges - Official announcement of the third pick occurs at the NBA Draft event itself, making this a binary resolution rather than a gradual outcome Contracts: - Will Keaton Wagler be picked 5th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Keaton Wagler — 73¢ Kalshi $94K (weight 13%) - Will Darius Acuff Jr. be picked 5th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Darius Acuff Jr. — 22¢ Kalshi $78K (weight 10%) - Will Brayden Burries be picked 9th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Brayden Burries — 84¢ Kalshi $73K (weight 10%) - Will Darius Acuff Jr. be picked 6th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Darius Acuff Jr. — 26¢ Kalshi $71K (weight 9%) - Will Darius Acuff Jr. be picked 7th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Darius Acuff Jr. — 57¢ Kalshi $57K (weight 8%) - Will Mikel Brown Jr. be picked 5th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Mikel Brown Jr. — 5¢ Kalshi $54K (weight 7%) - Will Mikel Brown Jr. be picked 6th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Mikel Brown Jr. — 61¢ Kalshi $51K (weight 7%) - Will Nate Ament be picked 9th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Nate Ament — 4¢ Kalshi $50K (weight 7%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nbadraftpick Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20picked%20third%20in%20the%20Pro%20Basketball%20Draft Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev