33% — Will Caleb Wilson be drafted by Chicago
Kalshi 33% · 10 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:05 UTC

Why this matters:
This 18% probability reflects the current likelihood that Caleb Wilson will be selected by the Chicago Bears in the 2026 NFL Draft. Wilson's draft position depends on several factors: the Bears' specific needs at his position, how other tight end prospects perform pre-draft, and where Chicago chooses to allocate its picks. The draft class composition and team priorities will shift as the draft approaches and more information about prospect evaluations surfaces. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the 2026 NFL Draft itself, currently scheduled for April 2026. Until then, changes in mock drafts, team workout reports, and injury updates could move this probability meaningfully. The relatively low current probability suggests markets view other landing spots as more likely for Wilson, though Chicago remains a plausible destination given their offensive needs.

Key factors:
- Chicago's current roster composition and stated offensive priorities heading into draft season
- Wilson's placement in major mock drafts and professional scouting consensus relative to the Bears' draft position
- Injury reports, pro day performance, or other pre-draft evaluation changes affecting Wilson's perceived value
- Whether Chicago addresses tight end in free agency or through earlier draft picks before potentially selecting Wilson
- The overall tight end prospect class depth and how many other options are available to teams with earlier picks

Contracts:
- Will Cameron Boozer be drafted by Memphis?: Memphis — 51¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 37%)
- Will Cameron Boozer be drafted by Chicago?: Chicago — 13¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 22%)
- Will AJ Dybantsa be drafted by Utah?: Utah — 24¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 22%)
- Will AJ Dybantsa be drafted by Washington?: Washington — 74¢ Kalshi $285 (weight 6%)
- Will Aday Mara be drafted by Atlanta?: Atlanta — 17¢ Kalshi $279 (weight 6%)
- Will Darius Acuff be drafted by Sacramento?: Sacramento — 27¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 2%)
- Will Aday Mara be drafted by Los Angeles C?: Los Angeles C — 5¢ Kalshi $77 (weight 2%)
- Will Keaton Wagler be drafted by Los Angeles C?: Los Angeles C — 36¢ Kalshi $52 (weight 1%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.531Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nbadraftteam
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Caleb%20Wilson%20be%20drafted%20by%20Chicago
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev