43% — Will Oklahoma City record more bench points than San Antonio
Kalshi 43% · 2 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:43:59 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects whether Oklahoma City's bench players will outscore San Antonio's bench players in their next matchup. The 51% odds indicate a near-even split between the two teams' bench scoring potential. Bench scoring efficiency depends on roster composition, player health, and how much each team relies on reserves due to injury or load management. The Thunder have generally prioritized depth and rotation flexibility, while the Spurs operate under different personnel constraints. The resolution will depend on actual game statistics from their next scheduled contest, making recent bench performance data and current injury reports primary drivers of market prices. Trading volume concentrates around the 61-63¢ price point, suggesting moderate confidence in Oklahoma City's advantage but meaningful uncertainty about the outcome.

Key factors:
- Oklahoma City bench scoring average over their last 10 games vs. San Antonio's bench scoring average over the same period
- Current roster availability and injuries affecting both teams' depth rotation options
- Percentage of total points each team typically sources from bench players (bench scoring rate)
- Head-to-head bench scoring history if teams have recently played
- Scheduled game date and whether back-to-backs or rest patterns affect bench playing time allocation

Contracts:
- Will Oklahoma City record more bench points than San Antonio?: Oklahoma City records more bench points than San Antonio — 67¢ Kalshi $937 (weight 66%)
- Will San Antonio record more bench points than Oklahoma City?: San Antonio records more bench points than Oklahoma City — 19¢ Kalshi $475 (weight 34%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T17:20:08.693Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "43% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nbah2hbenchpts
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Oklahoma%20City%20record%20more%20bench%20points%20than%20San%20Antonio
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev