11% — Will Luka Doncic win MVP
Kalshi 11% · 9 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 01:46:09 UTC

Why this matters:
At 14%, the market assesses Luka Doncic's probability of winning the 2026-27 NBA MVP award as relatively low compared to peers like Victor Wembanyama (31%) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (14%). This probability reflects expectations about performance during the upcoming season, which begins in October 2026. The low odds likely stem from recent historical context: Doncic has won MVP once (2024) while Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander represent emerging peak performers. Doncic's probability would rise if he demonstrates statistical dominance early in the 2026-27 season or if competing players face injury. The main resolution point is the regular season itself, with voting occurring in April 2027. Current market depth appears limited, with only $218 in 24-hour volume on Doncic's contract.

Key factors:
- Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander are trading at 31¢ and 14¢ respectively, suggesting the market views them as primary MVP contenders heading into 2026-27
- Doncic won MVP in 2024 and typically voters consider recent winners less favorably, which may partially explain the 14% pricing
- The 2026-27 season begins in October 2026 and MVP voting concludes in April 2027, providing a defined window for seasonal performance to accumulate
- Injury to competing candidates like Wembanyama or a breakout statistical season from Doncic would be the primary drivers of significant probability repricing
- Trading volume on Doncic's contract ($218 in 24 hours) is lower than Wembanyama ($512) and Gilgeous-Alexander ($1,148), indicating less market conviction or liquidity in this specific outcome

Contracts:
- Will Jalen Brunson win MVP?: Jalen Brunson — 3¢ Kalshi $976 (weight 43%)
- Will Anthony Edwards win MVP?: Anthony Edwards — 4¢ Kalshi $578 (weight 26%)
- Will Jayson Tatum win MVP?: Jayson Tatum — 5¢ Kalshi $520 (weight 23%)
- Will Victor Wembanyama win MVP?: Victor Wembanyama — 33¢ Kalshi $132 (weight 6%)
- Will Luka Doncic win MVP?: Luka Doncic — 15¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 1%)
- Will Cade Cunningham win MVP?: Cade Cunningham — 3¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 0%)
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win MVP?: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win MVP?: Giannis Antetokounmpo — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T01:20:49.182Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nbamvp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Luka%20Doncic%20win%20MVP
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev