19% — Will Atlanta qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament Kalshi 19% · 20 contracts · $598 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 07:34:30 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the chance that the Atlanta Hawks finish the 2025-26 NBA season within the top 10 of the Eastern Conference, qualifying for the play-in tournament. The 6% forecast reflects the Hawks' current position outside likely playoff contention, with their path dependent on both their own win-rate improvement and other teams' performance over the remaining schedule. The team's roster construction, health status of key players, and trade deadline moves represent primary variables that could shift this outcome. The resolution will be determined by final regular-season standings on April 10, 2026, when the NBA regular season concludes and playoff qualification is mathematically determined. Key factors: - Hawks' current win-loss record and remaining schedule games relative to the 10th seed cutoff in the Eastern Conference - Performance of marginal playoff-contention teams (currently Charlotte, Miami, and Orlando are similarly priced at 6%) competing for the same play-in spots - Health and availability of Atlanta's core rotation players throughout the remainder of the regular season - Any significant roster changes via trade deadline (February 10, 2026) that could alter team trajectory and competitiveness - Conference-wide competitive dynamics, including performance shifts in upper-tier teams that could create or eliminate play-in opportunities Contracts: - Will Dallas qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament?: Dallas — 39¢ Kalshi $552 (weight 92%) - Will Utah qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament?: Utah — 32¢ Kalshi $39 (weight 7%) - Will Miami qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Miami — 25¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 1%) - Will Atlanta qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Atlanta — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Brooklyn qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Brooklyn — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Boston qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Boston — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Charlotte qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Charlotte — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Chicago qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament?: Chicago — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:50.887Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nbaplayin Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Atlanta%20qualify%20for%20the%20Pro%20Basketball%20Eastern%20Conference%20Play-In%20Tournament Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev