86% — Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers Leader: Philadelphia at 86% · Kalshi 86% · 20 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-27 07:06:43 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This market aggregates predictions on which NBA team will qualify for the 2027 playoffs, with the current leader priced at 76% probability. The market reflects expectations about regular-season performance through April 2027, when playoff qualification is determined. Teams with higher probabilities are those perceived as having stronger rosters, favorable schedules, or track records of sustained winning. The outcome depends on measurable factors: win-loss records accumulated over the full season, playoff seeding positions finalized at season's end, and any mid-season roster transactions. The single largest catalyst is the regular season's completion in April 2027, which definitively determines which teams meet qualification thresholds. Until then, contract prices will fluctuate based on injury updates, trade activity, and actual game results that alter playoff positioning. Key factors: - Regular-season win-loss record from June 2026 through April 2027 directly determines playoff eligibility; teams must finish in top positions or meet league-specific criteria - Injury status of key roster players significantly affects competitive strength; major injuries to All-Star players typically lower a team's probability - Trade market activity during the season can improve or weaken rosters; acquisitions at deadlines may shift expectations for specific franchises - Strength of schedule variation means some teams face easier/harder remaining opponents, affecting their probability of reaching qualifying thresholds - Current market pricing reflects existing roster composition and perceived trajectory; changes in trading or free-agent availability will prompt repricing Contracts: - Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Philadelphia — 86¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 3%) - Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: New York — 82¢ Kalshi $55 (weight 2%) - Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Boston — 77¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Detroit — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Cleveland — 73¢ Kalshi $58 (weight 2%) - Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Houston — 71¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) - Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Los Angeles L — 69¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers: Toronto — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-27T06:20:49.254Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nbaplayoff Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Pro%20Basketball%20Playoff%20Qualifiers Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev