82% — Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Seattle before the start of the 2027-28 regular season
Leader: Do not relocate/announce a relocation at 82% · Kalshi 82% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 06:31:15 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets currently price an 78% likelihood that the Portland Trail Blazers will not relocate or announce relocation before the 2027-28 NBA season begins, with a 22% combined probability of moves to Seattle (8%) or Tampa Bay (4%). This reflects modest but non-trivial uncertainty about the franchise's future location. The high probability of staying suggests traders believe current ownership and local stakeholders have sufficient incentive to keep the team in Portland, though the franchise's competitive performance and arena infrastructure could drive changes. NBA relocation discussions typically accelerate during ownership transitions or when market conditions shift significantly. Key resolution events include any public statements by current ownership, potential ownership sales, arena renovation announcements or denials, and the franchise's on-court performance trajectory through the 2026-27 season.

Key factors:
- Trail Blazers' current ownership structure and stated commitment to Portland operations
- Availability and viability of competitive NBA markets (Seattle arena readiness, Tampa Bay market size and existing teams)
- Franchise competitiveness and ticket sales trends over the 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons
- Portland's arena infrastructure plans and local government support for facilities improvements
- Any public statements from NBA leadership, ownership groups, or city officials regarding relocation discussions

Contracts:
- Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are not relocating or stay in Portland before the start of the 2027-28 regular season?: Do not relocate/announce a relocation — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to St. Louis before the start of the 2027-28 regular season?: St. Louis — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Kansas City before the start of the 2027-28 regular season?: Kansas City — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Nashville before the start of the 2027-28 regular season?: Nashville — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the Portland Pro Basketball team announce they are relocating to Tampa Bay before the start of the 2027-28 regular season?: Tampa Bay — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-25T06:20:50.724Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nbarelocation
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Portland%20Pro%20Basketball%20team%20announce%20they%20are%20relocating%20to%20Seattle%20before%20the%20start%20of%20the%202027-28%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev