12% — Who will win Rookie of the Year
Kalshi 12% · 7 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 13:04:53 UTC

Why this matters:
This 15% probability reflects market expectations for a specific Rookie of the Year winner in what appears to be a fragmented field. The low individual contract prices suggest no single candidate has emerged as the clear favorite, with the highest-priced contract at 11 cents indicating distributed expectations across multiple rookies. The current probability level is driven by competitive uncertainty among candidates like Jadarian Price, Jordyn Tyson, and Makai Lemon. Movement in this probability will depend on performance metrics during the remainder of the season and how individual rookie statistics develop relative to peers. The primary resolution point will be the official Rookie of the Year award announcement at season's end, which typically occurs in early 2027, making regular performance data and voting patterns key indicators of probability shifts.

Key factors:
- No single candidate contracts above 11 cents suggests a competitive, multi-candidate field rather than a consensus favorite
- The gap between individual contract prices (7-11 cents) indicates meaningful probability distributed across at least 3-4 serious contenders
- 24-hour trading volumes remain modest (under $300 for top contracts), suggesting limited market certainty or attention to individual rookie races
- Performance statistics and cumulative season data through the remainder of 2026 will directly influence probabilities as voters evaluate candidates
- The official award announcement timing in early 2027 serves as the hard resolution date, making pre-announcement period trading patterns a potential leading indicator

Contracts:
- Will Caleb Wilson win Rookie of the Year?: Caleb Wilson — 20¢ Kalshi $701 (weight 47%)
- Will Darius Acuff Jr. win Rookie of the Year?: Darius Acuff Jr. — 5¢ Kalshi $339 (weight 23%)
- Will Darryn Peterson win Rookie of the Year?: Darryn Peterson — 18¢ Kalshi $309 (weight 21%)
- Will Yaxel Lendeborg win Rookie of the Year?: Yaxel Lendeborg — 5¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 5%)
- Will AJ Dybantsa win Rookie of the Year?: AJ Dybantsa — 16¢ Kalshi $65 (weight 4%)
- Will Cameron Boozer win Rookie of the Year?: Cameron Boozer — 19¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%)
- Will Mikel Brown Jr. win Rookie of the Year?: Mikel Brown Jr. — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-27T12:20:51.638Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nbaroy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20Rookie%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev