18% — Who will win Rookie of the Year Kalshi 18% · 10 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 19:03:08 UTC Why this matters: This 15% probability reflects market expectations for a specific Rookie of the Year winner in what appears to be a fragmented field. The low individual contract prices suggest no single candidate has emerged as the clear favorite, with the highest-priced contract at 11 cents indicating distributed expectations across multiple rookies. The current probability level is driven by competitive uncertainty among candidates like Jadarian Price, Jordyn Tyson, and Makai Lemon. Movement in this probability will depend on performance metrics during the remainder of the season and how individual rookie statistics develop relative to peers. The primary resolution point will be the official Rookie of the Year award announcement at season's end, which typically occurs in early 2027, making regular performance data and voting patterns key indicators of probability shifts. Key factors: - No single candidate contracts above 11 cents suggests a competitive, multi-candidate field rather than a consensus favorite - The gap between individual contract prices (7-11 cents) indicates meaningful probability distributed across at least 3-4 serious contenders - 24-hour trading volumes remain modest (under $300 for top contracts), suggesting limited market certainty or attention to individual rookie races - Performance statistics and cumulative season data through the remainder of 2026 will directly influence probabilities as voters evaluate candidates - The official award announcement timing in early 2027 serves as the hard resolution date, making pre-announcement period trading patterns a potential leading indicator Contracts: - Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carson Beck — 3¢ Kalshi $734 (weight 36%) - Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Caleb Downs — 18¢ Kalshi $330 (weight 16%) - Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Fernando Mendoza — 23¢ Kalshi $258 (weight 13%) - Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Rueben Bain Jr. — 14¢ Kalshi $237 (weight 11%) - Will Makai Lemon win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Makai Lemon — 7¢ Kalshi $235 (weight 11%) - Will Jordyn Tyson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jordyn Tyson — 13¢ Kalshi $134 (weight 7%) - Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jadarian Price — 9¢ Kalshi $83 (weight 4%) - Will Arvell Reese win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Arvell Reese — 17¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 2%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T18:20:49.156Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nbaroy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20Rookie%20of%20the%20Year Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev