21% — Will Zion Williamson be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027 Kalshi 21% · 9 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 01:50:47 UTC Why this matters: This prediction estimates a 5% chance that Zion Williamson will be traded between now and February 12, 2027. The low probability reflects Williamson's status as a cornerstone player for the New Orleans Pelicans and the lack of public indication that the franchise intends to move him. The main factors keeping this probability low are his recent contract extension and the Pelicans' stated commitment to building around him. The probability could rise if the Pelicans suffer significant injuries, miss the playoffs, or if Williamson's own injury history causes front-office reassessment. The key event to monitor is the Pelicans' performance and health through the 2026-27 season, particularly any announcements from team management regarding roster direction. Key factors: - Williamson signed a multi-year supermax extension with the Pelicans in 2023, signaling long-term organizational commitment - Williamson has missed substantial time due to recurring injuries (foot, hamstring), which could influence trade discussions if durability concerns escalate - New Orleans' playoff performance and win-loss record through mid-February would indicate whether the front office views a roster change as necessary - No credible reporting from league sources has suggested the Pelicans are exploring trade options for Williamson as of mid-2026 - Similar guards on comparable long-term deals traded recently (Joe, Dort) had lower market prices, suggesting limited bidding appetite even for star players with injury concerns Contracts: - Will LaMelo Ball be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: LaMelo Ball — 97¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 98%) - Will Jaylen Brown be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Jaylen Brown — 41¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 1%) - Will Kawhi Leonard be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Kawhi Leonard — 3¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 1%) - Will Nic Claxton be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Nic Claxton — 8¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 0%) - Will Rudy Gobert be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Rudy Gobert — 6¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 0%) - Will Luguentz Dort be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Luguentz Dort — 22¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Will Donte DiVincenzo be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: Donte DiVincenzo — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will De'Aaron Fox be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?: De'Aaron Fox — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T01:20:49.885Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nbatrade Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Zion%20Williamson%20be%20traded%20after%20Issuance%20and%20before%20Feb%2012%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev