34% — Will it be confirmed that No one is the NC-11 Republican nominee on Aug 11, 2026
Leader: Jennifer Balkcom at 34% · Kalshi 34% · 3 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 00:54:36 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the current market estimate that no Republican nominee will be officially confirmed for North Carolina's 11th congressional district by August 11, 2026. Tim Moffitt is the market-leading candidate at 56 cents, suggesting most traders expect a nominee to be selected rather than an empty outcome. The 'no one' outcome at 7 cents indicates relatively low concern about procedural failure or missed deadlines. The key driver is whether the NC Republican Party completes its nomination process by the deadline—either through a primary, convention, or other established mechanism. The resolution hinges on official confirmation rather than preliminary results. August 11, 2026 is the specific date when confirmation must occur; any delay beyond that date or procedural breakdown would resolve this contract affirmatively.

Key factors:
- Tim Moffitt's 56-cent price (vs. 7 cents for 'no one') suggests traders assign roughly 80% probability to a nominee being confirmed by August 11
- The 'no one' contract has minimal trading volume ($61 in 24 hours), indicating low liquidity and potentially weak conviction behind the low price
- NC-11 Republican nomination procedures and their timeline determine whether August 11 is sufficient for formal confirmation of a nominee
- No candidate besides Moffitt trades above 8 cents, consolidating market belief around a single frontrunner rather than wide-open race
- Historical data on NC Republican Party nomination timelines and whether August 11 represents an early, on-schedule, or late confirmation date

Contracts:
- Will it be confirmed that Jennifer Balkcom is the NC-11 Republican nominee on Aug 11, 2026?: Jennifer Balkcom — 34¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 53%)
- Will it be confirmed that Adam Smith is the NC-11 Republican nominee on Aug 11, 2026?: Adam Smith — 29¢ Kalshi $572 (weight 24%)
- Will it be confirmed that No one is the NC-11 Republican nominee on Aug 11, 2026?: No one — 12¢ Kalshi $542 (weight 23%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:51.128Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/nc11nomaug
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20it%20be%20confirmed%20that%20No%20one%20is%20the%20NC-11%20Republican%20nominee%20on%20Aug%2011%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev