88% — Who will win Golden Spikes Award Leader: Daniel Jackson at 88% · Kalshi 88% · 13 contracts · $984 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:08 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes. Why this matters: The Golden Spikes Award recognizes the most outstanding amateur baseball player each year, with current pricing suggesting the leading candidate faces meaningful but not prohibitive competition. The 28% probability for the frontrunner reflects a fragmented field where multiple players remain viable contenders, as evidenced by five different candidates trading between 3-5 cents. The market will likely sharpen as the college baseball season progresses through June and into postseason play, where standout tournament performances and statistical achievements become clearer. The award announcement typically occurs in June following the conclusion of the NCAA tournament, which serves as the primary catalyst for resolving uncertainty. Market pricing currently suggests the favorite holds a material but limited edge over remaining candidates. Key factors: - The leading candidate's 28% probability indicates substantial competition remains; the top 5 traded candidates collectively represent only around 22 cents, leaving significant uncertainty - No 24-hour trading volume exists across any of the listed contracts, suggesting low current market activity and potential for significant repricing as the season culminates - The award decision depends heavily on performance during May-June college baseball season and NCAA tournament play, creating a defined time window for information arrival - Multiple candidates are priced closely together (3-5 cents), indicating the market has not converged on a clear consensus beyond the top candidate - The NCAA Division I baseball tournament and postseason performances through June will likely be the primary driver of probability shifts before the June award announcement Contracts: - Who will win Golden Spikes Award?: Daniel Jackson — 88¢ Kalshi $515 (weight 52%) - Who will win Golden Spikes Award?: Roch Cholowsky — 11¢ Kalshi $374 (weight 38%) - Who will win Golden Spikes Award?: Cameron Flukey — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will win Golden Spikes Award?: Derek Curiel — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will win Golden Spikes Award?: Ethan Kleinschmit — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will win Golden Spikes Award?: Ace Reese — 4¢ Kalshi $95 (weight 10%) - Who will win Golden Spikes Award?: Brendan Lawson — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will win Golden Spikes Award?: Chris Hacopian — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.787Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaabbgs Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20Golden%20Spikes%20Award Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev