37% — Will North Carolina State be the Auburn Regional champions
Kalshi 37% · 19 contracts · $38K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:02 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the chance that NC State wins the Auburn Regional of the NCAA Division I baseball tournament. At 32%, the market suggests NC State is a moderate contender but faces significant competition from other regional teams. The probability is influenced by the team's regular season performance, NCAA tournament seeding, and strength of opponent matchups within the Auburn Regional bracket. The resolution of this market depends on the outcome of the regional tournament games, which typically occur in early June during the NCAA tournament. The market will move based on final tournament seeding announcements, any roster changes due to injuries, and early-round game results that indicate actual team performance in tournament play.

Key factors:
- NC State's NCAA tournament seeding and opponent draw in the Auburn Regional, which determines path to championship
- Team injury status and player availability heading into the tournament, affecting roster depth and competitive capability
- Historical performance of NC State against teams projected to be in the Auburn Regional, if lineup is predetermined
- Other regional contenders' relative strength and demonstrated performance, impacting comparative odds within the bracket
- Head-to-head strength indicators like RPI rankings, recent win-loss records, and tournament experience of key roster players

Contracts:
- Will Arkansas be the Lawrence Regional champions?: Arkansas — 44¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 16%)
- Will Ole Miss be the Lincoln Regional champions?: Ole Miss — 37¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 13%)
- Will USC Upstate be the Tuscaloosa Regional champions?: USC Upstate — 9¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%)
- Will Florida be the Gainesville Regional champions?: Florida — 68¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%)
- Will Texas A&M be the College Station Regional champions?: Texas A&M — 60¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%)
- Will Tennessee be the Chapel Hill Regional champions?: Tennessee — 21¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Will Nebraska be the Lincoln Regional champions?: Nebraska — 44¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Will Southern Miss be the Hattiesburg Regional champions?: Southern Miss — 51¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.681Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaabbreg
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20North%20Carolina%20State%20be%20the%20Auburn%20Regional%20champions
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev