8% — Will Ohio St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship Kalshi 8% · 8 contracts · $31K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 21:06:00 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects current market expectations that Ohio State has an 8% chance of winning the College Football Playoff National Championship. At this relatively low level, the market is pricing in significant competition from other contenders, with Texas currently trading at 11% as the favorite among similar contracts. Ohio State's probability would likely move based on their performance during the remainder of the regular season and bowl games, team health developments, and coaching decisions. The key catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the College Football Playoff selection process in early December 2026, which will determine whether Ohio State secures a playoff berth and, if selected, their path through the tournament. Between now and then, regular season wins and losses, strength of schedule completion, and injury updates to key players will provide concrete data points that could shift market expectations either upward or downward. Key factors: - Ohio State's regular season record and remaining schedule strength compared to other playoff contenders - Market pricing of Texas at 11% versus Ohio State at 8% suggests differentiation based on current roster composition or schedule difficulty - The College Football Playoff selection announcement in early December 2026 will determine if Ohio State qualifies, which is a binary event that will significantly impact the contract value - Head-to-head performance against ranked opponents and conference rivals during the regular season through November 2026 - Injury status and availability of key offensive and defensive players during the season, particularly any changes to starting lineups Contracts: - Will Oregon win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: Oregon — 9¢ Kalshi $23K (weight 75%) - Will Miami (FL) win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: Miami (FL) — 6¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 10%) - Will Georgia win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: Georgia — 6¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%) - Will Indiana win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: Indiana — 8¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%) - Will Notre Dame win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: Notre Dame — 10¢ Kalshi $962 (weight 3%) - Will LSU win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: LSU — 5¢ Kalshi $392 (weight 1%) - Will Ohio St. win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: Ohio St. — 8¢ Kalshi $369 (weight 1%) - Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: Texas — 11¢ Kalshi $318 (weight 1%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T20:20:49.914Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaaf Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ohio%20St.%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20Playoff%20National%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev