11% — Will Tulane win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Kalshi 11% · 9 contracts · $23 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-27 07:53:45 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects Tulane's chances of winning the American Athletic Conference Championship in college football. At 10%, it indicates the market views Tulane as a significant underdog among conference competitors. The probability is driven primarily by Tulane's historical performance relative to other AAC programs and their roster strength heading into the season. Key factors that would move this probability include Tulane's performance during the regular season, particularly in conference matchups, and their ability to avoid injuries among key players. The 2026 college football season's opening games and early conference contests will provide the first concrete data on team performance, which typically drives substantial probability adjustments. This market reflects uncertainty about how Tulane's team will perform against stronger programs both within and outside the conference. Key factors: - Tulane's regular-season win-loss record, particularly in AAC conference games, which directly determines their eligibility and seeding for the championship game - The strength of competing AAC programs and their early-season performance, which will establish the relative competitiveness of the conference - Key player availability and injury status for Tulane throughout the regular season, as losses to critical offensive or defensive contributors would materially impact championship odds - Head-to-head results in Tulane's matchups against other top AAC contenders, which serve as direct evidence of competitive strength - Market re-pricing based on early season results, as the 10% probability will adjust significantly based on actual performance data from September-November 2026 games Contracts: - Will Florida Atlantic win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: Florida Atlantic — 4¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 100%) - Will Army win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: Army — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will East Carolina win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: East Carolina — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Memphis win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: Memphis — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Navy win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: Navy — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tulane win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: Tulane — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will UAB win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: UAB — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will North Texas win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: North Texas — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:51.314Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafaac Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tulane%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20American%20Athletic%20Conference%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev