7% — Will Tulane win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship Kalshi 7% · 8 contracts · $183 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 00:23:59 UTC Why this matters: This contract reflects a 10% chance that Tulane wins the American Athletic Conference Championship in college football. The probability is relatively low, suggesting the market views Tulane as unlikely to secure the conference title this season. Several factors would influence this probability: Tulane's actual win-loss record and conference performance, competition from other AAC teams, and their remaining schedule difficulty. The primary uncertainty will resolve through the remainder of the 2026 college football season, with the AAC Championship game determining the winner. The current price implies stronger favorites exist within the conference, potentially teams like Tulsa (7¢), Memphis (15¢), and Navy (13¢) based on the contract prices shown. Key factors: - Tulane's current win-loss record and conference standing relative to other AAC teams - The strength of Tulane's remaining schedule and their head-to-head matchups against likely conference contenders - Comparative contract pricing for other AAC teams, indicating market confidence rankings among conference members - Historical performance data: Tulane's performance in previous AAC seasons and conference championship games - Trading volume and price movement on the Tulane contract, showing whether market participants are increasing or decreasing confidence Contracts: - Will UTSA win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: UTSA — 11¢ Kalshi $52 (weight 28%) - Will Memphis win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: Memphis — 13¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 21%) - Will South Florida win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: South Florida — 8¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 19%) - Will Navy win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: Navy — 3¢ Kalshi $27 (weight 15%) - Will Army win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: Army — 3¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 8%) - Will North Texas win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: North Texas — 3¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 5%) - Will Tulsa win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: Tulsa — 7¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 5%) - Will East Carolina win the College Football American Athletic Conference Championship?: East Carolina — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:21:02.155Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafaac Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tulane%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20American%20Athletic%20Conference%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev