12% — Will Miami (FL) win the College Football ACC Championship Kalshi 12% · 9 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-27 08:02:33 UTC Why this matters: This 13% probability reflects market expectations that Miami will win the ACC Championship in the 2026 college football season. The relatively modest odds reflect Miami's competitive standing within a strong ACC conference alongside established programs. Key drivers of this probability include the team's roster composition heading into the season, coaching stability and performance track record, and how Miami performs in key conference games against rivals. The actual probability will shift significantly once the season begins and results accumulate through conference play, particularly after Miami's matchups against traditional ACC powerhouses. The ultimate resolution occurs when the ACC Championship game is played, typically in early December, which will determine whether Miami reaches that title game and ultimately wins it. Key factors: - Miami's preseason roster strength and depth, especially at quarterback and defensive positions, relative to other ACC contenders - Historical performance trends: Miami's win-loss record and bowl appearances over the past 2-3 seasons indicate the baseline competitiveness of the program - Head coaching tenure and stability under current staff, which affects recruiting and in-season performance consistency - Schedule difficulty in ACC conference play, including number and quality of ranked opponents Miami must face during the regular season - Injury outcomes to key players during the season, which typically have material impact on championship probability during October-November Contracts: - Will California win the College Football ACC Championship?: California — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 62%) - Will Clemson win the College Football ACC Championship?: Clemson — 5¢ Kalshi $814 (weight 36%) - Will Virginia Tech win the College Football ACC Championship?: Virginia Tech — 3¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 2%) - Will Boston College win the College Football ACC Championship?: Boston College — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Louisville win the College Football ACC Championship?: Louisville — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Miami (FL) win the College Football ACC Championship?: Miami (FL) — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will North Carolina St. win the College Football ACC Championship?: North Carolina St. — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will SMU win the College Football ACC Championship?: SMU — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:50.239Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafacc Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Miami%20(FL)%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20ACC%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev