18% — Will Virginia qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game Kalshi 18% · 11 contracts · $83 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:16 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the likelihood that the University of Virginia's football team will qualify for the ACC Championship Game, currently priced at 10%. Virginia would need to finish among the top two teams in the ACC's playoff structure to reach the championship game. The low probability reflects Virginia's recent competitive standing within the conference; the team would need to significantly outperform historical expectations or benefit from weakness among traditional ACC contenders to earn a championship berth. The probability could shift materially based on Virginia's performance during the 2026 regular season, strength of schedule results, and how other ACC teams develop. The season conclusion and final ACC standings, determined after the regular season concludes in late 2026, will ultimately resolve this outcome. Key factors: - Virginia's conference win-loss record relative to other ACC teams through the end of the regular season - Head-to-head results against other ACC contenders and teams competing for championship spots - Strength of Virginia's out-of-conference schedule results and how those affect tiebreaker scenarios - Injury status and roster changes of key Virginia players throughout the 2026 season - Whether the ACC maintains or modifies its current playoff structure and selection criteria by season's end Contracts: - Will SMU qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?: SMU — 31¢ Kalshi $62 (weight 74%) - Will Clemson qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?: Clemson — 18¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 26%) - Will California qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?: California — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Florida St. qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?: Florida St. — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Georgia Tech qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?: Georgia Tech — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Louisville qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?: Louisville — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Miami (FL) qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?: Miami (FL) — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will North Carolina St. qualify for the College Football Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?: North Carolina St. — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:47.534Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafaccqual Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Virginia%20qualify%20for%20the%20College%20Football%20Atlantic%20Coast%20Conference%20Championship%20Game Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev