17% — Will Ohio St. be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings Kalshi 17% · 16 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 15:18:54 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates an 11% probability that Ohio State will be ranked #1 in the AP College Football Poll for Week 1 of the 2026 season. The relatively low odds reflect that preseason #1 rankings typically go to teams with established championship credentials or dominant recent track records. Ohio State would need to enter the season with either an exceptionally strong returning roster or significant offseason improvements to secure the top ranking ahead of other perennial powerhouses. The Week 1 AP Poll will be released in early September 2026, incorporating spring game results, recruiting classes, and offseason roster changes. Key factors include Ohio State's returning talent level, their offseason transfers and recruiting performance, comparisons to other traditional contenders, and preseason expert consensus. Key factors: - Ohio State's roster composition heading into 2026, particularly at key positions and depth on both sides of the ball - Transfer portal activity and recruiting class rankings relative to other top-tier programs competing for #1 ranking - Performance indicators from spring practice and bowl eligibility status from the 2025 season - Preseason rankings from major publications and expert polling trends in the weeks leading up to Week 1 - Comparative strength of other traditional powerhouses entering the 2026 season (Texas, Georgia, Notre Dame, etc.) Contracts: - Will Texas be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 4 rankings (expected to be released on Sep 20, 2026)?: Texas — 97¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 95%) - Will Texas be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?: Texas — 30¢ Kalshi $80 (weight 5%) - Will Georgia be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 7 rankings (expected to be released on Oct 11, 2026)?: Georgia — 8¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) - Will Texas be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 8 rankings (expected to be released on Oct 18, 2026)?: Texas — 28¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%) - Will Texas be the #1 ranked team on the College Football Final AP Poll rankings of the 2026-27 season?: Texas — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Oregon be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 9 rankings (expected to be released on Oct 25, 2026)?: Oregon — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Georgia be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 9 rankings (expected to be released on Oct 25, 2026)?: Georgia — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Texas be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 9 rankings (expected to be released on Oct 25, 2026)?: Texas — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-22T14:20:49.594Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafaprank Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ohio%20St.%20be%20%231%20ranked%20team%20on%20College%20Football%20AP%20Poll%20week%201%20rankings Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev