16% — Caleb Hawkins wins the award Kalshi 16% · 11 contracts · $194 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 14:08:05 UTC Why this matters: This represents a 10% chance that Caleb Hawkins wins a specific award, based on current prediction market pricing. Hawkins is trading at 3 cents on Kalshi, well below the leading contender Jeremiah Smith at 33 cents, suggesting market participants view Smith as a substantially stronger candidate. The probability reflects assessments of recent performance metrics, eligibility criteria, and voting patterns for this award. Factors supporting a higher probability would include standout recent statistics or accomplishments by Hawkins; factors lowering it would be comparable achievements by competing candidates. Market liquidity is minimal across most contracts (zero 24-hour volume on Hawkins), indicating limited trading activity and potentially wider uncertainty among participants. Resolution will occur when the award is officially announced, which should clarify whether Hawkins's actual qualifications and performance met the threshold for winning. Key factors: - Jeremiah Smith commands 33 cents compared to Hawkins at 3 cents, indicating market consensus favors Smith by roughly 11-to-1 odds - Hawkins's contract shows zero 24-hour trading volume, suggesting low confidence or interest in his candidacy among active traders - The minimal pricing of Hawkins relative to other candidates reflects either poor recent performance relative to peers or lower perceived award eligibility - No major liquidity or price movement on Hawkins's contract suggests no recent catalysts or information supporting his chances - Award resolution timeline and specific eligibility/voting criteria would directly determine outcome once announced Contracts: - Connor Robertson wins the award: Connor Robertson — 35¢ Kalshi $107 (weight 55%) - Malachi Toney wins the award: Malachi Toney — 9¢ Kalshi $64 (weight 33%) - Jordan Seaton wins the award: Jordan Seaton — 3¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 5%) - Jeremiah Smith wins the award: Jeremiah Smith — 32¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 4%) - Trey'Dez Green wins the award: Trey'Dez Green — 22¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 2%) - Bryce Underwood wins AP College Football Player of the Year: Bryce Underwood — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Darian Mensah wins AP College Football Player of the Year: Darian Mensah — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Jadan Baugh wins AP College Football Player of the Year: Jadan Baugh — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T13:20:50.811Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafaward Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Caleb%20Hawkins%20wins%20the%20award Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev