15% — Will Penn State win the College Football Big 10 Championship
Kalshi 15% · 6 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-28 14:09:31 UTC

Why this matters:
Penn State is currently priced at 14% to win the Big Ten Conference championship, reflecting moderate-to-low odds among conference competitors. This probability is driven primarily by the strength of conference rivals—Ohio State (30%), Oregon (25%), and Indiana (23%) command higher prices—and Penn State's performance through the 2026 season to date. The team's path to the championship depends on regular season results, head-to-head matchups against top contenders, and bowl eligibility status. Upcoming games against ranked opponents and final conference standings will be the primary driver of whether this probability adjusts significantly higher or lower as the season progresses toward the championship game.

Key factors:
- Penn State's record and strength of schedule through mid-season compared to Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana
- Historical Big Ten tournament performance and conference tournament seeding implications for Penn State's divisional standing
- Head-to-head results between Penn State and the three higher-probability favorites during regular season play
- Penn State's injury status for key offensive and defensive positions relative to remaining conference schedule
- Conference tiebreaker scenarios and strength-of-record calculations that determine championship game qualification

Contracts:
- Will USC win the College Football Big Ten Championship?: USC — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 43%)
- Will Oregon win the College Football Big Ten Championship?: Oregon — 25¢ Kalshi $622 (weight 21%)
- Will Penn State win the College Football Big Ten Championship?: Penn St. — 4¢ Kalshi $600 (weight 21%)
- Will Ohio State win the College Football Big Ten Championship?: Ohio St. — 30¢ Kalshi $240 (weight 8%)
- Will Indiana win the College Football Big Ten Championship?: Indiana — 23¢ Kalshi $191 (weight 7%)
- Will Michigan win the College Football Big Ten Championship?: Michigan — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-28T11:20:53.655Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafb10
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Penn%20State%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20Big%2010%20Championship
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev