15% — Will Penn St. qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game Kalshi 15% · 15 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-24 03:19:37 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the estimated chances that Penn State will win the Big Ten football conference championship game in 2026, qualifying them for that matchup through regular-season conference play. The 11% probability suggests market participants see Penn State as a moderate contender among Big Ten programs but not among the favorites—notably trailing Ohio State at 34% and well behind programs like Michigan and USC at 7% each. Penn State's path depends on their regular-season performance starting in fall 2026, their head-to-head results against other competitive conference teams, and whether they can secure one of the two spots in the championship game. The primary resolution point will be the conclusion of the 2026 college football season in early 2027, when either Penn State qualifies for the championship game or they do not. Factors that could shift this probability include coaching changes, recruiting outcomes through summer 2026, and preseason assessments of roster strength relative to conference rivals. Key factors: - Penn State's 2025 season results and bowl game performance, which would influence 2026 roster composition and program momentum heading into the market period - Conference strength distribution: whether Ohio State, Michigan, and other traditionally strong programs maintain competitive rosters, directly affecting the number of viable contenders for the two championship spots - Penn State's quarterback situation and offensive line depth entering the 2026 season, as these factors typically correlate with Big Ten championship contention - Regular-season scheduling: the specific opponents Penn State faces and the distribution of road vs. home games in 2026 conference play - Win-loss performance in September and October 2026: early-season results would provide concrete data to adjust market expectations for championship qualification Contracts: - Will Penn St. qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Penn St. — 26¢ Kalshi $901 (weight 68%) - Will Ohio St. qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Ohio St. — 50¢ Kalshi $214 (weight 16%) - Will UCLA qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: UCLA — 7¢ Kalshi $186 (weight 14%) - Will Washington qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Washington — 7¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 1%) - Will Indiana qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Indiana — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Iowa qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Iowa — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Maryland qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Maryland — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Michigan qualify for the College Football Big Ten Championship Game?: Michigan — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 7 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-24T02:20:50.112Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafb10qual Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Penn%20St.%20qualify%20for%20the%20College%20Football%20Big%20Ten%20Championship%20Game Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev