12% — Will Baylor win the College Football Big 12 Championship Kalshi 12% · 8 contracts · $30K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-28 14:09:31 UTC Why this matters: A 12% probability indicates roughly 1-in-8 odds that Baylor wins the Big 12 championship this season. This level reflects Baylor's recent competitive standing relative to other conference contenders, particularly Texas Tech, which shows significantly higher implied probability at 50%. The key drivers are Baylor's roster composition, offensive and defensive performance metrics from preseason evaluations, and strength of schedule within the conference. The probability will adjust based on actual game results throughout the 2026 season, with early conference matchups providing concrete evidence of competitive ability. The championship will be determined in December 2026 when the Big 12 tournament concludes or through final regular-season standings, depending on conference format. Until then, probabilities reflect expectations built on recruiting rankings, returning player statistics, coaching staff changes, and comparative analysis against the wider Big 12 field. Key factors: - Texas Tech's 50¢ contract price indicates market consensus that one Big 12 team has substantially higher championship odds than Baylor's 12¢ implied probability - Baylor's 12% probability is tied with BYU despite potential differences in roster depth, quarterback situation, and recent win-loss records - The concentration of volume in Texas Tech (50¢, $11k+ 24h) versus Baylor contracts suggests limited trader confidence in Baylor relative to top-tier contenders - Conference games beginning in late August/early September 2026 will generate empirical performance data that directly conflicts or validates preseason probability assessments - Injuries to key offensive or defensive players during training camp could materially shift Baylor's championship odds up or down Contracts: - Will TCU win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: TCU — 4¢ Kalshi $19K (weight 64%) - Will Oklahoma St. win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Oklahoma St. — 4¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 16%) - Will BYU win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: BYU — 12¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%) - Will Texas Tech win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Texas Tech — 51¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%) - Will Utah win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Utah — 11¢ Kalshi $900 (weight 3%) - Will Arizona win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Arizona — 4¢ Kalshi $584 (weight 2%) - Will Houston win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Houston — 4¢ Kalshi $423 (weight 1%) - Will Kansas St. win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Kansas St. — 4¢ Kalshi $281 (weight 1%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-28T13:21:15.873Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafb12 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Baylor%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20Big%2012%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev