15% — Will Baylor win the College Football Big 12 Championship
Kalshi 15% · 6 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 07:14:06 UTC

Why this matters:
This 11% probability reflects the likelihood that Baylor wins the Big 12 Conference championship during the 2026 football season. The relatively low probability suggests Baylor faces competitive headwinds within a conference that includes stronger programs. Key drivers of this probability include Baylor's recent competitive positioning relative to other Big 12 teams, roster strength, coaching stability, and injury circumstances entering the season. The main uncertainty will resolve through the conference tournament or final standings in late November/early December 2026, when actual on-field performance determines the champion. Market participants are pricing in meaningful competition from other conference programs, reflected in the contrast between this 11% figure and probabilities for playoff championship scenarios involving top-tier programs.

Key factors:
- Baylor's recent Big 12 performance record and win-loss trajectory in conference play over the past 2-3 seasons
- Roster composition and returning talent, particularly at quarterback and defensive positions, compared to other Big 12 contenders
- Conference strength distribution—the number and caliber of other programs competing for the championship affects Baylor's path
- Coaching staff continuity and any recent changes that could impact team performance in 2026
- Head-to-head scheduling dynamics within the Big 12, including whether Baylor faces stronger conference opponents in critical late-season matchups

Contracts:
- Will Kansas St. win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Kansas St. — 5¢ Kalshi $936 (weight 53%)
- Will Houston win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Houston — 4¢ Kalshi $410 (weight 23%)
- Will Texas Tech win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Texas Tech — 45¢ Kalshi $272 (weight 15%)
- Will BYU win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: BYU — 11¢ Kalshi $71 (weight 4%)
- Will Oklahoma St. win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Oklahoma St. — 8¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 2%)
- Will Utah win the College Football Big 12 Championship?: Utah — 14¢ Kalshi $35 (weight 2%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.366Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafb12
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Baylor%20win%20the%20College%20Football%20Big%2012%20Championship
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev