24% — Will BYU finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season Kalshi 24% · 17 contracts · $383 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 10:55:35 UTC Why this matters: This reflects the 17% chance that BYU finishes in the top three of the Big 12 standings in the 2026 regular season. The low probability suggests market participants view BYU as unlikely to compete with the conference's strongest teams this year. The assessment likely reflects BYU's recent performance relative to established Big 12 powers, roster composition, and schedule strength. Key variables include whether BYU's offensive and defensive units perform above or below preseason expectations, coaching staff execution, and injury impacts on key positions. The regular season will conclude in late November 2026, when final standings determine the outcome. Until then, early-season performance through October and November will provide data points that could shift market expectations significantly if BYU either surprises with strong wins or disappoints against ranked opponents. Key factors: - BYU's strength of schedule and performance against top-25 opponents in the non-conference and conference portions through October-November 2026 - Comparative roster quality and recruiting rankings relative to other contenders like Texas Tech (priced at 50¢), Houston, Kansas State, and Utah - Injury status of BYU's key offensive and defensive contributors during the regular season - Head coach Kalani Sitake's track record in Big 12 competition and team execution in high-leverage games - Market pricing disparities showing Texas Tech as the strongest contender (50¢) while BYU ranks fourth at 20¢, indicating consensus tier assessment Contracts: - Will Texas Tech finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Texas Tech — 65¢ Kalshi $383 (weight 100%) - Will Arizona finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Arizona — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Arizona St. finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Arizona St. — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will BYU finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: BYU — 52¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Colorado finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Colorado — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Houston finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Houston — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Kansas St. finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Kansas St. — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Oklahoma St. finish in the top 3 in the Big 12 in the 2026 college football regular season?: Oklahoma St. — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T09:20:49.641Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafb12regtop Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20BYU%20finish%20in%20the%20top%203%20in%20the%20Big%2012%20in%20the%202026%20college%20football%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev