78% — Will at least 3 teams in the Big 12 win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season Leader: 2+ teams at 78% · Kalshi 78% · 3 contracts · $504 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:14 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract asks whether at least three Big 12 teams will win 10+ games during the 2026 regular season. The 45% probability reflects meaningful uncertainty about whether the conference can field three double-digit-win teams simultaneously. The Big 12's competitive depth, strength of schedule distribution across member schools, and injury patterns throughout the season will determine outcomes. Historical precedent shows major conferences regularly produce 2-3 ten-win teams, but clustering three within a single conference requires sustained performance across multiple programs. The resolution depends entirely on final regular-season records, which will be determined after the 2026 season concludes in November-December 2026. Key variables include the conference's overall strength relative to competitors, whether traditional powers (Texas, Oklahoma, etc.) maintain excellence, and whether mid-tier programs exceed typical performance levels. Key factors: - Conference strength relative to other Power conferences affects how many Big 12 teams accumulate 10-win records through SOS difficulty - Historical Big 12 performance shows 1-2 double-digit-win teams are common, but three simultaneously is less frequent and requires sustained excellence - Schedule composition and injury luck across multiple programs must align for three separate teams to each win 10+ conference and non-conference games - As of August 2026, preseason expectations and roster composition are already set; remaining catalyst is actual game outcomes through November-December 2026 - Strength of individual programs' non-conference schedules affects total-win accumulation independent of conference play Contracts: - Will at least 2 teams in the Big 12 win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 2+ teams — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will at least 3 teams in the Big 12 win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 3+ teams — 43¢ Kalshi $500 (weight 99%) - Will at least 4 teams in the Big 12 win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 4+ teams — 18¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:48.840Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "78% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafbig12wins Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20at%20least%203%20teams%20in%20the%20Big%2012%20win%20at%20least%2010%20games%20in%20the%202026%20college%20football%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev