13% — Rolijah Hardy records the most sacks in the Big Ten
Kalshi 13% · 16 contracts · $176 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 10:55:34 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates a 16% chance that Rolijah Hardy finishes the 2026 Big Ten football season with more sacks than any other player in the conference. The market is pricing in competition from multiple defensive standouts across Big Ten programs. Hardy's probability would move higher if he demonstrates exceptional performance early in the season relative to peers, or lower if other defensive ends or linebacker prospects emerge as more dominant pass rushers. The primary catalyst for resolution will be the conclusion of the regular season in November 2026, when final Big Ten sack statistics can be calculated and compared across all players.

Key factors:
- Hardy's sack total through the first 4-6 weeks of the season compared to other projected Big Ten defensive leaders
- Whether Hardy receives consistent playing time and defensive snaps relative to other top pass rushers in the conference
- The strength of Hardy's team's pass rush scheme and whether it generates favorable opportunities for individual sack accumulation
- Injury status and availability of other top Big Ten defensive prospects competing for sack leader distinction
- Conference-wide statistics tracking through mid-season that would indicate relative performance trajectories

Contracts:
- Dylan Lonergan records the most passing yards in the Big Ten: Dylan Lonergan — 3¢ Kalshi $94 (weight 53%)
- Julian Sayin records the most passing touchdowns in the Big Ten: Julian Sayin — 31¢ Kalshi $65 (weight 37%)
- Jayden Maiava records the most passing yards in the Big Ten: Jayden Maiava — 24¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 7%)
- Tanook Hines records the most receiving yards in the Big Ten: Tanook Hines — 30¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 3%)
- Josh Hoover records the most passing touchdowns in the Big Ten: Josh Hoover — 12¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%)
- Rocco Becht records the most passing touchdowns in the Big Ten: Rocco Becht — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Josh Hoover records the most passing yards in the Big Ten: Josh Hoover — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Anthony Smith records the most sacks in the Big Ten: Anthony Smith — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T09:20:51.589Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafbigtenleader
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Rolijah%20Hardy%20records%20the%20most%20sacks%20in%20the%20Big%20Ten
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev