28% — Will Oregon finish in the top 3 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season Kalshi 28% · 15 contracts · $360 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 11:33:13 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the market's assessment that Oregon has an 18% chance of finishing among the Big Ten's top three teams in the 2026 regular season. Oregon joined the Big Ten in 2024 and faces an established group of powerhouse programs. The relatively low probability suggests market confidence that Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and other traditional Big Ten contenders will likely outperform the Ducks. The 2026 season begins in late August 2026, providing roughly one month until games start to adjust expectations based on preseason reporting, injury updates, and coaching changes. Key drivers include Oregon's offensive and defensive roster composition, whether their quarterback and offensive line remain healthy, and the relative strength of competing programs. Final resolution will depend on conference standings after all regular-season games conclude in November 2026. Key factors: - Oregon's offensive line and starting quarterback health and development entering the 2026 season - Strength of Oregon's defensive front and secondary relative to Ohio State, Penn State, and other Big Ten contenders - Conference schedule difficulty and Oregon's relative record against top-tier Big Ten opponents in head-to-head matchups - Whether major coaching changes occur at Oregon or competing programs between now and the start of the season - Preseason rankings and recruiting class evaluations released in summer 2026 that may reveal program trajectory shifts Contracts: - Will Michigan finish in the top 5 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season?: Michigan — 42¢ Kalshi $239 (weight 66%) - Will Indiana finish in the top 3 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season?: Indiana — 41¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 12%) - Will Ohio State finish in the top 3 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season?: Ohio State — 41¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 11%) - Will Oregon finish in the top 3 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season?: Oregon — 44¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 11%) - Will UCLA finish in the top 4 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season?: UCLA — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will USC finish in the top 5 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season?: USC — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Michigan finish in the top 4 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season?: Michigan — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Michigan finish in the top 3 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season?: Michigan — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 7 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T11:21:47.360Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafbigtenregtop Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Oregon%20finish%20in%20the%20top%203%20in%20the%20Big%20Ten%20in%20the%202026%20college%20football%20regular%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev