77% — Will at least 2 teams in the Big Ten win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season
Leader: 3+ teams at 77% · Kalshi 77% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether at least 2 Big Ten teams will reach 10 wins during the 2026 regular season. At 86%, the market reflects high confidence that multiple teams will cross this threshold, though not certainty. The Big Ten's strength and depth—particularly teams returning experienced rosters from 2025—support this outlook. The probability would decline if preseason injuries or recruiting losses weaken traditional powerhouses, or if the conference's non-conference schedule proves more competitive than expected. Resolution depends entirely on final 2026 regular-season records, with the outcome determined after the conference's final games in November 2026. Historical Big Ten performance shows multiple 10-win teams occur frequently, but conference parity and scheduling variance introduce meaningful uncertainty at the margin.

Key factors:
- 2025-2026 Big Ten team rosters and returning starter counts, particularly for Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and other contenders
- Preseason injury reports and recruiting class rankings for major programs entering summer 2026
- Non-conference strength of schedule and upset potential against Big Ten programs before conference play begins
- Conference win distribution and whether traditional top teams maintain separation or parity increases
- Final regular-season records of Big Ten teams as of November 2026, the sole determinant of contract resolution

Contracts:
- Will at least 3 teams in the Big Ten win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 3+ teams — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will at least 5 teams in the Big Ten win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 5+ teams — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will at least 6 teams in the Big Ten win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 6+ teams — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will at least 7 teams in the Big Ten win at least 10 games in the 2026 college football regular season?: 7+ teams — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:21:02.718Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ncaafbigtenwins
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20at%20least%202%20teams%20in%20the%20Big%20Ten%20win%20at%20least%2010%20games%20in%20the%202026%20college%20football%20regular%20season
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev